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Leyton Orient v Stevenage — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · ENG-League One · 2627

ENG-League One results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Leyton Orient win
40.7%
Draw
28.1%
Stevenage win
31.2%

Raw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.1%
  2. 1-0 12.5%
  3. 0-1 10.6%
  4. 0-0 10.0%
  5. 2-1 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.540.5% Under 2.559.5%
BTTS yes46.5% BTTS no53.5%
Leyton Orient 1+71.3% Leyton Orient 2+35.5%
Stevenage 1+65.2% Stevenage 2+28.4%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.06. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
22/100
Data quality
20/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Under 2.5 goals
Over/Under · usually 48%
57.8% fair odds 1.73
strong signal · 12482 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Stevenage (+1.5)
Asian handicap · usually 80%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 13600 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • At home Leyton Orient average 1.35 xG a match.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • Leyton Orient have only 1 matches on record.
  • Stevenage have only 1 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Leyton Orient have an estimated 40.7% win probability, against 31.2% for Stevenage and 28.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.25 for Leyton Orient and 1.05 for Stevenage.

Why Leyton Orient

At home Leyton Orient average 1.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.1%. A combined 2.30 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.25 to 1.05.

Why Stevenage can win

Stevenage carry the stronger rating, 1531 Elo against 1500. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Leyton Orient, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Stevenage, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Leyton Orient: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Stevenage: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Leyton Orient are the model's most likely outcome at 40.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.27–1.10 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.27–1.16 1-1 13% 44% 49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient to win 40.4% 41.6% 45.1% 0.92× 2.41
Stevenage to win 31.9% 31.5% 29.5% 1.07× 3.17
Draw 27.7% 27.1% 25.6% 1.06× 3.69
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient & not both score 24.0% 21.7% 24.6% 0.88× 4.61
Draw & both teams score 18.4% 18.1% 19.6% 0.93× 5.52
Stevenage & not both score 18.7% 18.1% 16.0% 1.13× 5.52
Leyton Orient & both teams score 16.4% 18.1% 20.7% 0.87× 5.52
Stevenage & both teams score 13.2% 12.7% 13.6% 0.93× 7.88
Draw & not both score 9.3% 7.7% 6.1% 1.24× 13.07
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient & under 3.5 31.0% 31.8% 31.4% 1.01× 3.15
Leyton Orient & over 1.5 28.5% 26.4% 33.0% 0.80× 3.79
Stevenage & under 3.5 25.1% 26.4% 21.7% 1.22× 3.79
Draw & under 2.5 22.3% 21.8% 18.4% 1.18× 4.58
Draw & under 3.5 22.3% 21.8% 18.4% 1.18× 4.58
Stevenage & over 1.5 21.6% 21.8% 21.4% 1.02× 4.58
Leyton Orient & over 2.5 20.9% 21.8% 27.7% 0.79× 4.58
Leyton Orient & under 2.5 19.5% 17.7% 17.6% 1.01× 5.64
Draw & over 1.5 18.4% 17.7% 19.6% 0.91× 5.64
Stevenage & over 2.5 16.0% 17.7% 17.0% 1.04× 5.64
Stevenage & under 2.5 15.9% 17.7% 12.6% 1.40× 5.64
Leyton Orient & under 1.5 11.9% 12.4% 12.3% 1.01× 8.06
Stevenage & under 1.5 10.3% 12.4% 8.3% 1.50× 8.06
Leyton Orient & over 3.5 9.4% 7.6% 13.9% 0.54× 13.20
Draw & under 1.5 9.3% 7.6% 6.1% 1.23× 13.20
Stevenage & over 3.5 6.8% 7.6% 7.9% 0.96× 13.21
Draw & over 2.5 5.3% 7.6% 7.3% 1.04× 13.21
Draw & over 3.5 5.3% 7.6% 7.3% 1.04× 13.21
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient (1UP) 55.0% 54.4% 1.84
Stevenage (1UP) 47.5% 48.1% 2.08
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient (2UP) 40.4% 44.1% 2.27
Stevenage (2UP) 31.9% 35.5% 2.82
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 38.5% 36.5% 2.74
Leyton Orient to win 2nd half 32.8% 32.8% 3.05
Stevenage to win 2nd half 28.8% 28.4% 3.53
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stevenage (+2.5) 93.7% 92.3% 89.8% 1.03× 1.08
Stevenage (+1.5) 82.0% 83.2% 80.1% 1.04× 1.20
Leyton Orient (+0.5) 68.1% 67.9% 70.6% 0.96× 1.47
Stevenage (+0.5) 59.6% 58.3% 54.9% 1.06× 1.71
Leyton Orient (-0.5) 40.4% 41.7% 45.1% 0.92× 2.40
Stevenage (-0.5) 31.9% 32.1% 29.5% 1.09× 3.12
Leyton Orient (-1.5) 18.0% 16.8% 19.9% 0.84× 5.95
Leyton Orient (-2.5) 6.3% 7.7% 10.2% 0.76× 12.98
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stevenage to concede 72.0% 75.6% 78.0% 0.97× 1.32
Stevenage clean sheet 28.0% 24.4% 22.0% 1.11× 4.10
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stevenage clean sheet in 1st half 57.8% 57.4% 1.74
Stevenage to concede in 1st half 42.2% 42.6% 2.35
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stevenage under 3.5 goals 97.4% 97.3% 96.8% 1.01× 1.03
Stevenage under 2.5 goals 90.1% 92.2% 88.4% 1.04× 1.09
Stevenage under 1.5 goals 69.9% 67.5% 66.7% 1.01× 1.48
Stevenage over 0.5 goals 66.7% 67.5% 69.4% 0.97× 1.48
Stevenage under 0.5 goals 33.3% 32.5% 30.6% 1.06× 3.08
Stevenage over 1.5 goals 30.1% 32.5% 33.3% 0.97× 3.08
Stevenage over 2.5 goals 9.9% 7.9% 11.7% 0.67× 12.74
Stevenage over 3.5 goals 2.6% 2.7% 3.2% 0.83× 37.12
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stevenage under 1.5 in 1st half 92.8% 93.8% 1.07
Stevenage under 0.5 in 1st half 64.4% 62.5% 1.60
Stevenage over 0.5 in 1st half 35.6% 37.5% 2.67
Stevenage over 1.5 in 1st half 7.2% 6.2% 16.20
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient (away no bet) 59.4% 58.7% 63.8% 0.92× 1.71
Draw (away no bet) 40.6% 41.3% 36.2% 1.14× 2.42
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stevenage even goals 55.6% 56.4% 54.7% 1.03× 1.77
Stevenage odd goals 44.5% 43.6% 45.3% 0.96× 2.29
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 89.5% 86.9% 1.15
Both halves over 1.5 goals 10.5% 13.1% 7.64
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 55.8% 59.6% 1.68
Both halves under 1.5 goals 44.2% 40.4% 2.48
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 48.4% 49.9% 2.01
Leyton Orient to score 2+ in a row 29.5% 26.8% 3.74
Stevenage to score 2+ in a row 23.3% 21.7% 4.60
Either team to score 3+ in a row 15.0% 17.0% 5.89
Leyton Orient to score 3+ in a row 9.1% 7.8% 12.89
Stevenage to score 3+ in a row 6.1% 7.7% 12.99
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.0% 11.2% 12.5% 0.90× 8.91
1-0 11.9% 11.2% 12.3% 0.91× 8.91
0-1 10.3% 11.2% 8.3% 1.36× 8.91
0-2 5.6% 7.4% 4.5% 1.64× 13.45
1-2 7.2% 7.4% 7.4% 1.00× 13.45
2-0 7.6% 7.4% 5.5% 1.35× 13.45
2-1 8.3% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.45
0-0 9.3% 7.4% 6.1% 1.21× 13.45
0-3 2.1% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.34
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.06× 58.35
1-3 2.6% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.34
1-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.65× 58.35
2-2 4.6% 1.7% 6.0% 0.29× 58.34
2-3 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 0.96× 58.34
2-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.3% 5.30× 58.35
3-0 3.2% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.34
3-1 3.5% 1.7% 4.0% 0.42× 58.34
3-2 1.9% 1.7% 3.2% 0.53× 58.34
3-3 0.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.18× 58.35
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 5.30× 58.35
4-0 1.0% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.35
4-1 1.1% 1.7% 1.6% 1.06× 58.34
4-2 0.6% 1.7% 0.6% 2.65× 58.35
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% 2.65× 58.35
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 10.59× 58.35
Any other score 1.5% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.34
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient leading at HT (DNB) 56.9% 57.0% 1.75
Stevenage leading at HT (DNB) 43.1% 43.0% 2.33
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient or Stevenage (12) 72.3% 72.9% 74.4% 0.98× 1.37
Leyton Orient or draw (1X) 68.1% 68.5% 70.6% 0.97× 1.46
Stevenage or draw (X2) 59.6% 58.4% 54.9% 1.07× 1.71
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient or draw at HT 77.0% 76.8% 1.30
Stevenage or draw at HT 69.7% 67.2% 1.49
Leyton Orient or Stevenage at HT 53.2% 53.9% 1.85
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient or draw (1UP) 68.1% 71.4% 1.40
Stevenage or draw (1UP) 59.6% 64.8% 1.54
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient or draw in 2nd half 71.2% 71.6% 1.40
Stevenage or draw in 2nd half 67.2% 67.2% 1.49
Leyton Orient or Stevenage in 2nd half 61.5% 63.5% 1.58
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 67.3% 65.2% 1.53
Neither half drawn 32.7% 34.8% 2.87
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient (DNB) 55.9% 57.0% 60.5% 0.94× 1.76
Stevenage (DNB) 44.1% 43.0% 39.5% 1.09× 2.32
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient to score first 48.7% 46.2% 2.17
Stevenage to score first 42.0% 43.7% 2.29
No goal scored 9.3% 6.4% 15.56
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 52.0% 51.6% 46.4% 1.11× 1.94
Both teams to score 48.0% 48.4% 53.6% 0.90× 2.07
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 44.7% 41.6% 36.1% 1.15× 2.40
Both score & over 2.5 35.0% 34.0% 41.3% 0.82× 2.94
Both score & under 2.5 13.0% 11.9% 12.5% 0.95× 8.41
Not both score & over 2.5 7.3% 8.4% 10.5% 0.80× 11.85
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 89.1% 85.7% 85.9% 1.00× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 10.9% 14.3% 14.1% 1.01× 7.01
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 75.1% 73.9% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 24.9% 26.1% 3.83
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 63.8% 60.7% 1.65
Both score 2nd half only 21.2% 23.4% 4.28
Both score 1st half only 11.3% 11.9% 8.43
Both score in both halves 3.7% 4.9% 20.60
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 85.0% 84.5% 1.18
Both teams to score by HT 15.0% 15.5% 6.47
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 53.0% 52.5% 1.91
A goal in each half 47.0% 47.5% 2.11
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.0% 46.5% 45.0% 1.03× 2.15
0-1 goals 31.5% 31.2% 26.4% 1.18× 3.21
4-6 goals 20.5% 23.5% 27.2% 0.86× 4.26
7+ goals 1.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.13× 49.78
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stevenage to score exactly 1 36.6% 36.0% 36.2% 0.99× 2.78
Stevenage to score exactly 0 33.3% 32.3% 30.6% 1.06× 3.09
Stevenage to score exactly 2 20.1% 23.2% 21.8% 1.06× 4.30
Stevenage to score 3+ 9.9% 8.6% 11.7% 0.74× 11.62
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient to score exactly 1 35.6% 36.6% 36.1% 1.01× 2.73
Leyton Orient to score exactly 0 28.0% 26.4% 22.0% 1.20× 3.78
Leyton Orient to score exactly 2 22.7% 22.9% 22.5% 1.02× 4.38
Leyton Orient to score 3+ 13.7% 13.3% 19.7% 0.67× 7.53
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 46.8% 46.1% 2.17
Leyton Orient leading at HT 30.3% 32.8% 3.05
Stevenage leading at HT 23.0% 23.2% 4.31
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient -1: 2 59.6% 58.2% 1.72
Leyton Orient -1: X 22.4% 23.3% 4.29
Leyton Orient -1: 1 18.0% 17.8% 5.61
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stevenage (0:1) 59.6% 57.8% 54.9% 1.05× 1.73
Draw (0:1) 22.4% 23.6% 25.4% 0.93× 4.24
Leyton Orient (0:1) 18.0% 18.2% 19.9% 0.92× 5.49
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stevenage (0:2) 82.0% 82.9% 80.1% 1.04× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 11.8% 11.4% 9.9% 1.15× 8.81
Leyton Orient (0:2) 6.3% 7.7% 10.2% 0.76× 12.97
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stevenage (0:3) 93.7% 92.6% 89.8% 1.03× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.5% 2.6% 6.5% 0.39× 39.14
Leyton Orient (0:3) 1.8% 2.6% 3.9% 0.66× 39.18
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stevenage (0:4) 98.2% 97.7% 96.1% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.3% 1.4% 2.8% 0.51× 70.72
Leyton Orient (0:4) 0.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.09× 70.76
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient (1:0) 68.1% 69.1% 70.6% 0.98× 1.45
Draw (1:0) 19.3% 17.3% 17.3% 1.00× 5.77
Stevenage (1:0) 12.6% 12.6% 12.3% 1.02× 7.97
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient (2:0) 87.4% 88.1% 87.7% 1.00× 1.14
Draw (2:0) 8.8% 6.6% 7.9% 0.84× 15.11
Stevenage (2:0) 3.8% 2.8% 4.5% 0.62× 35.89
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.1% 48.2% 2.07
Halves equal 27.1% 26.2% 3.82
1st half highest scoring 26.8% 26.2% 3.82
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient to concede 66.7% 68.6% 69.4% 0.99× 1.46
Leyton Orient clean sheet 33.3% 31.4% 30.6% 1.03× 3.19
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient clean sheet in 1st half 64.4% 62.3% 1.61
Leyton Orient to concede in 1st half 35.6% 37.7% 2.65
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient under 3.5 goals 96.0% 96.6% 93.0% 1.04× 1.04
Leyton Orient under 2.5 goals 86.3% 87.3% 80.3% 1.09× 1.15
Leyton Orient over 0.5 goals 72.0% 73.1% 78.0% 0.94× 1.37
Leyton Orient under 1.5 goals 63.6% 62.4% 57.9% 1.08× 1.60
Leyton Orient over 1.5 goals 36.4% 37.6% 42.1% 0.89× 2.66
Leyton Orient under 0.5 goals 28.0% 26.9% 22.0% 1.22× 3.71
Leyton Orient over 2.5 goals 13.7% 12.7% 19.7% 0.64× 7.87
Leyton Orient over 3.5 goals 4.0% 3.4% 7.0% 0.49× 29.39
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient under 1.5 in 1st half 89.5% 87.8% 1.14
Leyton Orient under 0.5 in 1st half 57.8% 57.5% 1.74
Leyton Orient over 0.5 in 1st half 42.2% 42.5% 2.35
Leyton Orient over 1.5 in 1st half 10.5% 12.2% 8.18
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stevenage (home no bet) 53.6% 52.0% 53.5% 0.97× 1.92
Draw (home no bet) 46.4% 48.0% 46.5% 1.03× 2.08
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient even goals 53.9% 50.9% 48.7% 1.05× 1.96
Leyton Orient odd goals 46.1% 49.1% 51.3% 0.96× 2.04
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 37.3% 34.8% 2.87
HT 1-0 20.4% 22.5% 4.45
HT 0-1 16.4% 19.9% 5.03
HT 1-1 9.0% 8.0% 12.53
HT 2-0 5.6% 8.0% 12.56
HT 0-2 3.6% 2.5% 40.42
Any other HT score 2.8% 2.5% 40.45
HT 2-1 2.5% 2.5% 40.47
HT 1-2 2.0% 2.5% 40.49
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.5% 40.56
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient at HT / Leyton Orient at FT 23.2% 20.9% 4.77
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 18.0% 17.3% 5.78
Stevenage at HT / Stevenage at FT 16.5% 17.3% 5.78
Draw at HT / Leyton Orient at FT 15.3% 17.3% 5.78
Draw at HT / Stevenage at FT 13.5% 12.0% 8.32
Leyton Orient at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.4% 15.51
Stevenage at HT / Draw at FT 4.5% 3.6% 27.51
Leyton Orient at HT / Stevenage at FT 1.9% 3.6% 27.58
Stevenage at HT / Leyton Orient at FT 1.9% 3.6% 27.58
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Leyton Orient to score last 48.7% 46.3% 2.16
Stevenage to score last 42.0% 43.4% 2.30
No goal scored 9.3% 6.4% 15.56
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 90.7% 93.5% 1.07
Leyton Orient to lead by 1 at any time 55.0% 51.8% 1.93
Stevenage to lead by 1 at any time 47.5% 46.6% 2.15
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 40.3% 41.7% 2.40
Leyton Orient to lead by 2 at any time 23.2% 21.4% 4.68
Stevenage to lead by 2 at any time 17.3% 17.6% 5.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 12.7% 11.0% 9.06
Leyton Orient to lead by 3 at any time 7.7% 7.4% 13.47
Stevenage to lead by 3 at any time 5.0% 2.7% 37.69
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.3% 87.1% 89.0% 0.98× 1.15
1-4 goals 81.5% 82.1% 81.4% 1.01× 1.22
1-3 goals 69.2% 68.2% 65.2% 1.05× 1.47
2-6 goals 67.4% 68.2% 72.0% 0.95× 1.47
2-5 goals 65.1% 68.2% 68.8% 0.99× 1.47
2-4 goals 59.3% 58.9% 61.2% 0.96× 1.70
1-2 goals 48.4% 47.4% 42.4% 1.12× 2.11
2-3 goals 47.0% 47.4% 45.0% 1.05× 2.11
3-6 goals 41.2% 43.6% 50.0% 0.87× 2.30
3-5 goals 38.9% 39.0% 46.8% 0.83× 2.56
3-4 goals 33.1% 34.7% 39.2% 0.89× 2.88
4-6 goals 20.5% 23.7% 27.2% 0.87× 4.22
4-5 goals 18.2% 18.9% 23.9% 0.79× 5.30
5-6 goals 8.2% 8.9% 11.0% 0.81× 11.21
7+ goals 1.1% 2.3% 1.8% 1.27× 44.28
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stevenage never behind 35.7% 47.2% 2.12
Leyton Orient never behind 43.2% 47.2% 2.12
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 50.4% 50.1% 47.6% 1.05× 2.00
Odd number of goals 49.6% 49.9% 52.4% 0.95× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.9% 55.1% 1.82
Odd goals in 1st half 43.1% 44.9% 2.23
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.1% 51.6% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.9% 48.4% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 96.6% 96.0% 95.0% 1.01× 1.04
Over 0.5 goals 90.7% 92.3% 93.9% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 90.8% 92.3% 87.4% 1.06× 1.08
Under 3.5 goals 78.4% 77.0% 71.2% 1.08× 1.30
Over 1.5 goals 68.5% 67.7% 73.6% 0.92× 1.48
Under 2.5 goals 57.7% 57.8% 48.4% 1.19× 1.73
Over 2.5 goals 42.3% 42.2% 51.6% 0.82× 2.37
Under 1.5 goals 31.5% 32.3% 26.4% 1.23× 3.09
Over 3.5 goals 21.6% 23.0% 28.8% 0.80× 4.34
Under 0.5 goals 9.3% 7.7% 6.1% 1.26× 12.91
Over 4.5 goals 9.2% 7.7% 12.6% 0.61× 12.91
Over 5.5 goals 3.4% 4.0% 5.0% 0.79× 25.20
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.9% 97.3% 98.2% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 96.4% 97.3% 94.6% 1.03× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 89.5% 86.6% 84.9% 1.02× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 72.8% 72.1% 62.7% 1.15× 1.39
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 57.3% 58.2% 66.2% 0.88× 1.72
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 42.7% 41.8% 33.8% 1.24× 2.39
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 27.2% 27.9% 37.3% 0.75× 3.59
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 10.5% 13.4% 15.1% 0.89× 7.49
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.6% 2.7% 5.4% 0.50× 36.69
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.1% 2.7% 1.8% 1.48× 36.72
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 92.2% 91.9% 1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half 74.1% 73.8% 1.35
Over 0.5 in 1st half 62.7% 65.1% 1.54
Under 0.5 in 1st half 37.3% 34.9% 2.87
Over 1.5 in 1st half 25.9% 26.2% 3.82
Over 2.5 in 1st half 7.8% 8.1% 12.29
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 83.7% 82.5% 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 75.0% 75.7% 1.32
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 59.7% 57.1% 1.75
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 40.3% 42.9% 2.33
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 25.0% 24.3% 4.12
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 16.3% 17.5% 5.73
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stevenage not to score in both halves 82.8% 81.3% 1.23
Leyton Orient not to score in both halves 78.2% 75.8% 1.32
Leyton Orient to score in both halves 21.8% 24.2% 4.14
Stevenage to score in both halves 17.2% 18.7% 5.34
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 48.0% 50.7% 53.6% 0.95× 1.97
Only Leyton Orient scores 24.0% 21.6% 24.6% 0.88× 4.64
Only Stevenage scores 18.7% 16.9% 16.0% 1.05× 5.93
Neither team scores 9.3% 7.1% 6.1% 1.15× 14.08
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.2% 25.0% 22.2% 1.13× 4.00
Exactly 1 goals 22.2% 22.3% 20.4% 1.09× 4.49
Exactly 3 goals 20.8% 22.3% 23.0% 0.97× 4.49
Exactly 4 goals 12.3% 12.3% 16.3% 0.75× 8.14
Exactly 0 goals 9.3% 7.8% 6.1% 1.26× 12.88
Exactly 5 goals 5.8% 7.8% 7.8% 1.00× 12.89
6 or more goals 3.4% 4.0% 5.0% 0.81× 24.73
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 40.3% 43.0% 2.33
1 goal in 2nd half 34.7% 34.4% 2.91
No goals in 2nd half 25.0% 27.1% 3.70
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stevenage not to win both halves 93.4% 92.6% 1.08
Leyton Orient not to win both halves 90.1% 92.6% 1.08
Leyton Orient to win both halves 9.9% 7.4% 13.44
Stevenage to win both halves 6.6% 7.4% 13.56
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stevenage to win neither half 54.9% 53.0% 1.89
Leyton Orient to win either half 53.1% 53.0% 1.89
Leyton Orient to win neither half 46.9% 47.0% 2.13
Stevenage to win either half 45.1% 47.0% 2.13
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stevenage not to win to nil 81.3% 82.9% 84.0% 0.99× 1.21
Leyton Orient not to win to nil 76.0% 78.4% 75.4% 1.04× 1.28
Leyton Orient to win to nil 24.0% 21.6% 24.6% 0.88× 4.63
Stevenage to win to nil 18.7% 17.1% 16.0% 1.06× 5.86
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 27.7% 27.3% 25.6% 1.07× 3.66
Leyton Orient by 1 22.4% 23.4% 25.4% 0.92× 4.27
Stevenage by 1 19.3% 17.2% 17.3% 1.00× 5.80
Leyton Orient by 2 11.8% 11.8% 9.9% 1.20× 8.45
Stevenage by 2 8.8% 7.3% 7.9% 0.92× 13.77
Leyton Orient by 3+ 6.3% 7.3% 10.2% 0.71× 13.77
Stevenage by 3+ 3.8% 3.0% 4.5% 0.66× 33.45
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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