Mainz 05 v Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 19 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 16
On target
7 – 4
Shots in box
14 – 12
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.80 – 0.76
Goals − xG
-0.68 – +0.19
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Mainz 05 win
47.9%
Draw
26.2%
Wolfsburg win
25.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDLWLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 23.4 xG
conceded 12
from 15.3 xG
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.62–1.13 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Mainz 05 2.68 xGWolfsburg 1.81 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Mainz 05 attacking right
Wolfsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Wolfsburg |
Maximilian Arnold | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kevin Paredes |
| 4' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kevin Paredes |
| 5' |
 Mainz 05 |
Nelson Weiper | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Robin Zentner |
| 7' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jae-Sung Lee |
| 9' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Burkardt |
| 10' |
Mainz 05 |
Nelson Weiper | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
Mainz 05 |
Nikolas Veratschnig | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonathan Burkardt |
| 14' |
Wolfsburg |
Bence Dárdai | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 14' |
Wolfsburg |
Maximilian Arnold | 0.02 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 18' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.57 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 22' |
Wolfsburg |
Kevin Paredes | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Patrick Wimmer |
| 29' |
Wolfsburg |
Maximilian Arnold | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 36' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Nelson Weiper |
| 38' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nelson Weiper |
| 39' |
Mainz 05 |
Dominik Kohr | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 42' |
Wolfsburg |
Kevin Paredes | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joakim Maehle |
| 46' |
Wolfsburg |
Jonas Wind | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Konstantinos Koulierakis |
| 48' |
Wolfsburg |
Kevin Paredes | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jonas Wind |
| 48' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Mainz 05 |
Moritz Jenz | 0.66 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Nelson Weiper |
| 59' |
Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 60' |
Wolfsburg |
Kevin Paredes | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 66' |
Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 70' |
Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 70' |
Wolfsburg |
Jonas Wind | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 76' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hong Hyun-Seok |
| 77' |
Mainz 05 |
Anthony Caci | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kaishu Sano |
| 77' |
Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 78' |
Mainz 05 |
Andreas Hanche-Olsen | 0.30 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 82' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.37 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Burkardt |
| 87' |
Wolfsburg |
Tiago Tomás | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 88' |
Wolfsburg |
Denis Vavro | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Goal | Maximilian Arnold |
| 90' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Burkardt |
Players
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jae-Sung Lee AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.94 | 0.07 | 1.51 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Jonathan Burkardt FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| Nadiem Amiri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.45 | 1.36 |
| Anthony Caci MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.71 |
| Nikolas Veratschnig ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Danny da Costa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Robin Zentner GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.78 |
| Dominik Kohr DC | 81 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Nelson Weiper FW | 81 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.10 | 1.12 | 1.31 |
| Andreas Hanche-Olsen Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hong Hyun-Seok Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Arnaud Nordin Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Silvan Widmer Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bence Dárdai MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Denis Vavro DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Maximilian Arnold MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.72 | 0.26 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.34 |
| Kilian Fischer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Joakim Maehle DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Jonas Wind FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.46 |
| Mohammed Amoura FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1.04 | 0.23 | 0.69 |
| Kevin Paredes DMR | 68 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.08 | 0.34 |
| Patrick Wimmer MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.38 |
| Tiago Tomás Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Lukas Nmecha Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mattias Svanberg Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jakub Kaminski Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Lovro Majer Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |