Mainz 05 v Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 7
On target
8 – 2
Shots in box
16 – 4
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
2.91 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-1.41 – -0.10
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Mainz 05 win
37.0%
Draw
28.9%
Wolfsburg win
34.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLWLWD last 10
scored 15
from 22.2 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.38–1.32 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.86–1.59 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 67% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Mainz 05 4.41 xGWolfsburg 1.10 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Mainz 05 attacking right
Wolfsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.68 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sael Kumbedi |
| 3' |
 Mainz 05 |
Silvan Widmer | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 4' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.23 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 9' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dzenan Pejcinovic |
| 16' |
Mainz 05 |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 22' |
Mainz 05 |
Stefan Bell | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 29' |
Mainz 05 |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Stefan Bell |
| 34' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.10 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.28 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 39' |
Mainz 05 |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.23 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Silvan Widmer |
| 41' |
Mainz 05 |
Stefan Bell | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Stefan Posch |
| 45' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 49' |
Mainz 05 |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Mainz 05 |
Stefan Bell | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Mainz 05 |
Kaishu Sano | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 67' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Goal | Nadiem Amiri |
| 72' |
Mainz 05 |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Mainz 05 |
Stefan Bell | 0.83 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Benedict Hollerbach |
| 76' |
Mainz 05 |
Stefan Bell | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Phillip Tietz |
| 79' |
Mainz 05 |
Stefan Bell | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 82' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 88' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Wolfsburg |
Jesper Lindstrom | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Tietz FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.34 | 0.08 | 0.89 |
| Benedict Hollerbach FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1.14 | 0.83 | 1.10 |
| Stefan Bell DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1.09 | 0.34 | 0.54 |
| Silvan Widmer DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jae-Sung Lee MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dominik Kohr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefan Posch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Daniel Batz GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paul Nebel MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| Danny da Costa DMR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Nadiem Amiri Sub | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.76 | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| Philipp Mwene Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| William Bøving Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Silas Wamangituka Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lennard Maloney Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dzenan Pejcinovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| Sael Kumbedi DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.68 | 0.00 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Denis Vavro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aaron Zehnter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Eriksen AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Yannick Gerhardt DMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrick Wimmer AMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vinicius Souza DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohammed Amoura AML | 71 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Adam Daghim Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jesper Lindstrom Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lovro Majer Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mattias Svanberg Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kento Shiogai Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |