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Oxford United v Burton Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · ENG-League One · 2627

ENG-League One results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

dc-xg No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Oxford United win
74.8%
Draw
17.2%
Burton Albion win
8.0%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 2.67–0.84 2-0 11% 68% 54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United to win 63.7% 58.2% 45.2% 1.29× 1.72
Draw 18.5% 19.3% 25.6% 0.76× 5.17
Burton Albion to win 17.8% 19.3% 29.3% 0.66× 5.17
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United & both teams score 36.5% 33.2% 20.7% 1.60× 3.02
Oxford United & not both score 27.1% 25.2% 24.6% 1.02× 3.97
Draw & both teams score 15.8% 17.9% 19.6% 0.91× 5.58
Burton Albion & both teams score 11.5% 13.2% 13.6% 0.97× 7.55
Burton Albion & not both score 6.4% 8.4% 15.9% 0.53× 11.95
Draw & not both score 2.7% 4.9% 6.2% 0.79× 20.53
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United & over 1.5 57.2% 55.0% 33.1% 1.66× 1.82
Oxford United & over 2.5 49.4% 45.3% 27.7% 1.63× 2.21
Oxford United & over 3.5 33.7% 30.9% 13.9% 2.21× 3.24
Oxford United & under 3.5 30.0% 30.9% 31.4% 0.98× 3.24
Draw & over 1.5 15.8% 18.0% 19.6% 0.92× 5.56
Burton Albion & over 1.5 14.6% 12.9% 21.2% 0.61× 7.77
Oxford United & under 2.5 14.3% 12.9% 17.7% 0.73× 7.77
Burton Albion & over 2.5 12.6% 12.9% 17.0% 0.76× 7.78
Draw & under 2.5 10.6% 12.9% 18.5% 0.70× 7.78
Draw & under 3.5 10.6% 12.9% 18.5% 0.70× 7.78
Burton Albion & under 3.5 10.8% 12.9% 21.6% 0.60× 7.78
Draw & over 2.5 7.9% 7.9% 7.3% 1.08× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 7.9% 7.9% 7.3% 1.08× 12.69
Oxford United & under 1.5 6.5% 7.9% 12.3% 0.64× 12.69
Burton Albion & over 3.5 7.0% 7.9% 7.9% 0.99× 12.69
Burton Albion & under 2.5 5.3% 7.9% 12.5% 0.63× 12.69
Burton Albion & under 1.5 3.3% 4.8% 8.3% 0.58× 20.93
Draw & under 1.5 2.7% 4.8% 6.2% 0.78× 20.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United (1UP) 77.3% 79.3% 1.26
Burton Albion (1UP) 39.0% 34.1% 2.93
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United (2UP) 63.7% 68.1% 1.47
Burton Albion (2UP) 17.8% 17.3% 5.78
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United to win 2nd half 52.2% 51.8% 1.93
2nd half drawn 28.0% 26.3% 3.81
Burton Albion to win 2nd half 19.9% 19.4% 5.15
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United (+0.5) 82.2% 82.4% 70.7% 1.17× 1.21
Burton Albion (+2.5) 76.8% 78.5% 89.8% 0.87× 1.28
Oxford United (-0.5) 63.7% 62.9% 45.2% 1.39× 1.59
Burton Albion (+1.5) 58.1% 57.0% 80.1% 0.71× 1.75
Oxford United (-1.5) 41.9% 43.0% 19.9% 2.16× 2.33
Burton Albion (+0.5) 36.3% 37.1% 54.8% 0.68× 2.69
Oxford United (-2.5) 23.2% 21.5% 10.2% 2.11× 4.64
Burton Albion (-0.5) 17.8% 17.6% 29.3% 0.60× 5.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion to concede 90.9% 91.7% 78.1% 1.17× 1.09
Burton Albion clean sheet 9.1% 8.3% 21.9% 0.38× 12.01
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion to concede in 1st half 64.4% 64.9% 1.54
Burton Albion clean sheet in 1st half 35.6% 35.1% 2.85
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion under 3.5 goals 96.5% 97.6% 96.8% 1.01× 1.03
Burton Albion under 2.5 goals 87.8% 87.9% 88.3% 1.00× 1.14
Burton Albion over 0.5 goals 70.2% 71.9% 69.4% 1.04× 1.39
Burton Albion under 1.5 goals 65.9% 68.0% 66.8% 1.02× 1.47
Burton Albion over 1.5 goals 34.1% 32.0% 33.2% 0.96× 3.12
Burton Albion under 0.5 goals 29.9% 28.1% 30.6% 0.92× 3.56
Burton Albion over 2.5 goals 12.2% 12.1% 11.7% 1.04× 8.25
Burton Albion over 3.5 goals 3.5% 2.4% 3.2% 0.75× 41.01
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion under 1.5 in 1st half 91.5% 94.1% 1.06
Burton Albion under 0.5 in 1st half 61.7% 64.4% 1.55
Burton Albion over 0.5 in 1st half 38.3% 35.6% 2.81
Burton Albion over 1.5 in 1st half 8.5% 5.9% 16.95
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United (away no bet) 77.5% 73.7% 63.8% 1.15× 1.36
Draw (away no bet) 22.5% 26.3% 36.2% 0.73× 3.80
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion even goals 54.5% 52.8% 54.6% 0.97× 1.90
Burton Albion odd goals 45.5% 47.2% 45.4% 1.04× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 72.4% 77.2% 1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals 27.7% 22.8% 4.38
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 78.9% 72.9% 1.37
Both halves under 1.5 goals 21.1% 27.1% 3.69
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 72.1% 71.8% 1.39
Oxford United to score 2+ in a row 60.0% 59.4% 1.68
Either team to score 3+ in a row 35.1% 36.2% 2.76
Oxford United to score 3+ in a row 30.5% 28.4% 3.52
Burton Albion to score 2+ in a row 22.2% 19.3% 5.18
Burton Albion to score 3+ in a row 5.3% 5.5% 18.12
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other score 10.2% 11.4% 3.4% 3.36× 8.73
2-1 9.4% 7.4% 9.6% 0.78× 13.46
1-0 6.5% 7.4% 12.3% 0.60× 13.46
1-1 7.9% 7.4% 12.5% 0.60× 13.46
2-0 7.8% 7.4% 5.5% 1.35× 13.46
3-1 7.5% 7.4% 4.1% 1.83× 13.46
2-2 5.7% 7.4% 6.0% 1.24× 13.46
3-0 6.2% 7.4% 4.5% 1.64× 13.46
1-2 4.8% 1.7% 7.5% 0.23× 58.56
0-0 2.7% 1.7% 6.2% 0.28× 58.58
0-1 3.3% 1.7% 8.3% 0.21× 58.57
0-2 2.0% 1.7% 4.4% 0.39× 58.58
0-3 0.8% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.59
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.59
1-3 1.9% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.58
1-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.6% 2.63× 58.59
2-3 2.3% 1.7% 1.8% 0.96× 58.58
2-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.3% 5.27× 58.59
3-2 4.6% 1.7% 3.2% 0.53× 58.57
3-3 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.17× 58.58
3-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.3% 5.27× 58.59
4-0 3.7% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.57
4-1 4.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.57
4-2 2.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.63× 58.58
4-3 1.1% 1.7% 0.6% 2.63× 58.59
4-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.2% 10.53× 58.59
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United leading at HT (DNB) 74.0% 71.6% 1.40
Burton Albion leading at HT (DNB) 26.0% 28.4% 3.52
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United or draw (1X) 82.2% 80.7% 70.7% 1.14× 1.24
Oxford United or Burton Albion (12) 81.5% 80.7% 74.4% 1.08× 1.24
Burton Albion or draw (X2) 36.3% 41.8% 54.8% 0.76× 2.39
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United or draw at HT 82.9% 84.2% 1.19
Oxford United or Burton Albion at HT 65.6% 66.0% 1.52
Burton Albion or draw at HT 51.5% 47.4% 2.11
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United or draw (1UP) 82.2% 88.5% 1.13
Burton Albion or draw (1UP) 39.0% 42.6% 2.35
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United or draw in 2nd half 80.1% 80.6% 1.24
Oxford United or Burton Albion in 2nd half 72.0% 73.7% 1.36
Burton Albion or draw in 2nd half 47.8% 48.2% 2.07
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 52.7% 50.1% 2.00
Neither half drawn 47.3% 49.9% 2.01
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United (DNB) 78.1% 74.7% 60.7% 1.23× 1.34
Burton Albion (DNB) 21.9% 25.3% 39.3% 0.64× 3.95
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United to score first 64.7% 64.5% 1.55
Burton Albion to score first 32.6% 27.0% 3.70
No goal scored 2.7% 4.3% 23.15
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 63.8% 56.5% 53.6% 1.05× 1.77
Not both teams to score 36.2% 43.5% 46.4% 0.94× 2.30
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 55.9% 47.2% 41.3% 1.14× 2.12
Not both score & under 2.5 22.3% 27.7% 36.0% 0.77× 3.61
Not both score & over 2.5 13.9% 12.3% 10.5% 1.17× 8.11
Both score & under 2.5 7.9% 8.4% 12.5% 0.67× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 76.5% 80.0% 85.9% 0.93× 1.25
Both teams to score 2+ 23.5% 20.0% 14.1% 1.42× 5.00
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 61.6% 66.0% 1.51
Both teams to score in 2nd half 38.4% 34.0% 2.95
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 46.4% 53.7% 1.86
Both score 2nd half only 28.9% 26.1% 3.83
Both score 1st half only 15.2% 15.5% 6.44
Both score in both halves 9.5% 6.8% 14.80
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 75.3% 81.6% 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 24.7% 18.4% 5.43
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 68.4% 66.8% 1.50
A half without a goal 31.6% 33.2% 3.02
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
4-6 goals 41.3% 42.1% 27.2% 1.55× 2.38
2-3 goals 38.9% 35.0% 44.9% 0.78× 2.86
0-1 goals 12.5% 16.9% 26.4% 0.64× 5.91
7+ goals 7.3% 7.6% 1.8% 4.27× 13.14
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion to score exactly 1 36.1% 36.0% 36.3% 0.99× 2.78
Burton Albion to score exactly 0 29.9% 27.4% 30.6% 0.89× 3.65
Burton Albion to score exactly 2 21.8% 22.4% 21.7% 1.03× 4.47
Burton Albion to score 3+ 12.2% 12.8% 11.7% 1.10× 7.80
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United to score 3+ 43.0% 35.1% 19.8% 1.77× 2.85
Oxford United to score exactly 2 26.1% 26.5% 22.5% 1.18× 3.77
Oxford United to score exactly 1 21.8% 23.3% 36.1% 0.64× 4.30
Oxford United to score exactly 0 9.1% 10.3% 21.9% 0.47× 9.68
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United leading at HT 48.5% 52.6% 1.90
Draw at HT 34.4% 34.0% 2.94
Burton Albion leading at HT 17.1% 15.8% 6.31
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United -1: 1 41.9% 42.7% 2.34
Oxford United -1: 2 36.3% 37.3% 2.68
Oxford United -1: X 21.8% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United (0:1) 41.9% 42.7% 19.9% 2.14× 2.34
Burton Albion (0:1) 36.3% 37.3% 54.8% 0.68× 2.68
Draw (0:1) 21.8% 24.3% 25.4% 0.95× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion (0:2) 58.1% 62.8% 80.1% 0.78× 1.59
Oxford United (0:2) 23.2% 20.3% 10.2% 1.99× 4.92
Draw (0:2) 18.7% 15.3% 9.9% 1.55× 6.53
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion (0:3) 76.8% 80.6% 89.8% 0.90× 1.24
Draw (0:3) 12.3% 10.0% 6.5% 1.55× 9.97
Oxford United (0:3) 10.9% 10.0% 3.9% 2.57× 10.00
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion (0:4) 89.1% 92.0% 96.1% 0.96× 1.09
Draw (0:4) 6.5% 4.6% 2.8% 1.67× 21.69
Oxford United (0:4) 4.4% 1.2% 1.3% 0.93× 82.96
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United (1:0) 82.2% 81.5% 70.7% 1.15× 1.23
Draw (1:0) 11.0% 12.8% 17.3% 0.74× 7.81
Burton Albion (1:0) 6.9% 6.9% 12.2% 0.57× 14.49
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United (2:0) 93.1% 94.0% 87.8% 1.07× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 4.7% 2.3% 7.8% 0.29× 44.11
Burton Albion (2:0) 2.1% 2.3% 4.5% 0.50× 44.28
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 51.0% 50.2% 1.99
1st half highest scoring 27.9% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 21.1% 24.2% 4.14
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United to concede 70.2% 73.0% 69.4% 1.05× 1.37
Oxford United clean sheet 29.9% 27.0% 30.6% 0.88× 3.70
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United clean sheet in 1st half 61.7% 64.4% 1.55
Oxford United to concede in 1st half 38.3% 35.6% 2.81
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United over 0.5 goals 90.9% 92.2% 78.1% 1.18× 1.08
Oxford United under 3.5 goals 77.9% 77.7% 93.0% 0.84× 1.29
Oxford United over 1.5 goals 69.1% 67.9% 42.1% 1.61× 1.47
Oxford United under 2.5 goals 57.0% 58.8% 80.2% 0.73× 1.70
Oxford United over 2.5 goals 43.0% 41.2% 19.8% 2.08× 2.43
Oxford United under 1.5 goals 30.9% 32.1% 57.9% 0.55× 3.12
Oxford United over 3.5 goals 22.1% 22.3% 7.0% 3.20× 4.49
Oxford United under 0.5 goals 9.1% 7.8% 21.9% 0.36× 12.87
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United under 1.5 in 1st half 72.4% 79.3% 1.26
Oxford United over 0.5 in 1st half 64.4% 64.7% 1.55
Oxford United under 0.5 in 1st half 35.6% 35.3% 2.84
Oxford United over 1.5 in 1st half 27.6% 20.7% 4.84
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 50.9% 51.5% 46.6% 1.11× 1.94
Burton Albion (home no bet) 49.1% 48.5% 53.4% 0.91× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United even goals 50.4% 50.6% 48.6% 1.04× 1.98
Oxford United odd goals 49.6% 49.4% 51.4% 0.96× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 1-0 22.7% 24.2% 4.13
HT 0-0 22.0% 24.2% 4.13
HT 2-0 11.7% 11.0% 9.05
HT 1-1 11.0% 11.0% 9.06
HT 0-1 10.6% 11.0% 9.06
Any other HT score 9.8% 7.1% 14.06
HT 2-1 5.7% 7.1% 14.13
HT 1-2 2.7% 2.2% 44.73
HT 0-2 2.6% 2.2% 44.74
HT 2-2 1.4% 2.2% 44.83
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United at HT / Oxford United at FT 42.0% 43.2% 2.32
Draw at HT / Oxford United at FT 17.9% 16.8% 5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 9.6% 6.1% 16.51
Burton Albion at HT / Burton Albion at FT 9.2% 6.1% 16.52
Draw at HT / Burton Albion at FT 6.8% 6.0% 16.59
Oxford United at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.4% 29.09
Burton Albion at HT / Draw at FT 4.1% 3.4% 29.12
Burton Albion at HT / Oxford United at FT 3.7% 3.4% 29.13
Oxford United at HT / Burton Albion at FT 1.8% 3.4% 29.21
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United to score last 64.7% 62.5% 1.60
Burton Albion to score last 32.6% 32.8% 3.05
No goal scored 2.7% 4.3% 23.15
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 97.3% 95.6% 1.05
Oxford United to lead by 1 at any time 77.3% 78.6% 1.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 62.4% 61.5% 1.63
Oxford United to lead by 2 at any time 50.2% 50.5% 1.98
Burton Albion to lead by 1 at any time 39.0% 34.8% 2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 30.9% 29.4% 3.40
Oxford United to lead by 3 at any time 27.4% 25.2% 3.97
Burton Albion to lead by 2 at any time 12.8% 10.5% 9.56
Burton Albion to lead by 3 at any time 3.5% 1.6% 62.33
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 81.7% 83.5% 89.0% 0.94× 1.20
2-6 goals 80.2% 83.5% 72.0% 1.16× 1.20
2-5 goals 71.8% 72.4% 68.7% 1.05× 1.38
1-4 goals 67.8% 69.0% 81.4% 0.85× 1.45
3-6 goals 62.5% 63.5% 50.1% 1.27× 1.58
2-4 goals 58.0% 59.2% 61.1% 0.97× 1.69
3-5 goals 54.2% 53.2% 46.8% 1.13× 1.88
1-3 goals 48.7% 48.7% 65.2% 0.75× 2.06
4-6 goals 41.3% 43.6% 27.2% 1.60× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.4% 43.6% 39.2% 1.11× 2.29
2-3 goals 38.9% 39.2% 44.9% 0.87× 2.55
4-5 goals 33.0% 35.4% 24.0% 1.47× 2.83
1-2 goals 27.5% 30.2% 42.3% 0.71× 3.31
5-6 goals 22.1% 24.4% 11.0% 2.22× 4.09
7+ goals 7.3% 8.7% 1.8% 4.90× 11.44
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United never behind 58.3% 62.7% 1.60
Burton Albion never behind 20.0% 24.1% 4.14
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 50.0% 50.8% 52.5% 0.97× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.0% 49.2% 47.5% 1.04× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 52.4% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 47.6% 48.5% 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.8% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.2% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 97.3% 95.5% 93.8% 1.02× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 87.5% 87.7% 73.6% 1.19× 1.14
Under 5.5 goals 84.4% 82.4% 95.0% 0.87× 1.21
Under 4.5 goals 70.5% 72.5% 87.4% 0.83× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 69.8% 66.3% 51.7% 1.28× 1.51
Under 3.5 goals 51.4% 52.4% 71.2% 0.74× 1.91
Over 3.5 goals 48.6% 47.6% 28.8% 1.65× 2.10
Under 2.5 goals 30.2% 33.7% 48.3% 0.70× 2.97
Over 4.5 goals 29.5% 27.5% 12.6% 2.17× 3.64
Over 5.5 goals 15.6% 17.6% 5.0% 3.51× 5.67
Under 1.5 goals 12.5% 12.3% 26.4% 0.47× 8.11
Under 0.5 goals 2.7% 4.5% 6.2% 0.73× 22.21
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 92.0% 92.5% 98.2% 0.94× 1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 84.8% 81.1% 66.2% 1.23× 1.23
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 81.8% 81.1% 94.6% 0.86× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 63.6% 62.1% 84.9% 0.73× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 61.7% 62.1% 37.4% 1.66× 1.61
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 38.3% 37.9% 62.6% 0.61× 2.64
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 36.4% 37.9% 15.1% 2.51× 2.64
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 18.2% 18.9% 5.4% 3.47× 5.30
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 15.2% 18.9% 33.8% 0.56× 5.30
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 8.0% 7.5% 1.8% 4.09× 13.26
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 80.5% 86.3% 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 78.0% 78.7% 1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half 55.3% 63.7% 1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half 44.7% 36.3% 2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half 22.0% 21.3% 4.69
Over 2.5 in 1st half 19.5% 13.7% 7.32
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 87.7% 85.4% 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 65.2% 67.0% 1.49
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 61.8% 61.8% 1.62
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 38.2% 38.2% 2.62
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 34.8% 33.0% 3.03
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 12.3% 14.6% 6.86
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion not to score in both halves 80.2% 84.2% 1.19
Oxford United not to score in both halves 52.1% 56.6% 1.77
Oxford United to score in both halves 47.9% 43.4% 2.30
Burton Albion to score in both halves 19.8% 15.8% 6.32
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 63.8% 60.3% 53.6% 1.12× 1.66
Only Oxford United scores 27.1% 26.2% 24.6% 1.06× 3.82
Only Burton Albion scores 6.4% 7.2% 15.9% 0.45× 13.95
Neither team scores 2.7% 4.6% 6.2% 0.75× 21.77
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 21.2% 22.6% 23.0% 0.98× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 19.2% 17.5% 16.4% 1.07× 5.73
Exactly 2 goals 17.6% 17.5% 22.0% 0.79× 5.73
6 or more goals 15.6% 17.4% 5.0% 3.47× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 13.8% 12.1% 7.8% 1.55× 8.29
Exactly 1 goals 9.8% 7.6% 20.4% 0.37× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 2.7% 4.4% 6.2% 0.72× 22.63
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 61.8% 58.6% 1.71
1 goal in 2nd half 25.8% 29.5% 3.39
No goals in 2nd half 12.3% 14.5% 6.92
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion not to win both halves 96.6% 97.2% 1.03
Oxford United not to win both halves 74.7% 73.2% 1.37
Oxford United to win both halves 25.3% 26.8% 3.73
Burton Albion to win both halves 3.4% 2.8% 35.32
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United to win either half 75.4% 79.5% 1.26
Burton Albion to win neither half 66.5% 67.7% 1.48
Burton Albion to win either half 33.5% 32.3% 3.10
Oxford United to win neither half 24.6% 20.5% 4.89
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion not to win to nil 93.6% 92.1% 84.1% 1.09× 1.09
Oxford United not to win to nil 72.9% 75.3% 75.4% 1.00× 1.33
Oxford United to win to nil 27.1% 24.7% 24.6% 1.00× 4.04
Burton Albion to win to nil 6.4% 7.9% 15.9% 0.50× 12.59
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United by 3+ 23.2% 24.1% 10.2% 2.36× 4.14
Oxford United by 1 21.8% 24.1% 25.4% 0.95× 4.14
Oxford United by 2 18.7% 16.9% 9.9% 1.71× 5.90
Draw 18.5% 16.9% 25.6% 0.66× 5.90
Burton Albion by 1 11.0% 11.8% 17.3% 0.68× 8.47
Burton Albion by 2 4.7% 2.7% 7.8% 0.35× 36.92
Burton Albion by 3+ 2.1% 2.7% 4.5% 0.60× 37.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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