Plymouth Argyle v Burton Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 26 September 2026 · ENG-League One · 2627
ENG-League One results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-0 10.5%
- 1-1 10.3%
- 2-0 10.2%
- 2-1 9.9%
- 3-0 6.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 55.6% | Under 2.5 | 44.4% |
| BTTS yes | 53.3% | BTTS no | 46.7% |
| Plymouth Argyle 1+ | 85.5% | Plymouth Argyle 2+ | 57.5% |
| Burton Albion 1+ | 62.4% | Burton Albion 2+ | 25.6% |
Expected goals 1.93 – 0.98. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Burton Albion have only 1 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Plymouth Argyle have an estimated 59.7% win probability, against 21.7% for the draw and 18.6% for Burton Albion. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.93 for Plymouth Argyle and 0.98 for Burton Albion.
Why Plymouth Argyle
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 21.7%.
Why Burton Albion can win
Burton Albion carry the stronger rating, 1498 Elo against 1440. Away from home Burton Albion average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Plymouth Argyle, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Burton Albion, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Plymouth Argyle: 0% possession, 0.0 shots a match, 4.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Burton Albion: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-10 15:23 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-10 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·
Plymouth Argyle are the model's most likely outcome at 59.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 10.5%. Confidence 20/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.93–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 2.09–1.44 | 1-1 11% | 69% | 69% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.