RasenBallsport Leipzig v Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 10
On target
10 – 3
Shots in box
16 – 3
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.47 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-0.51 – +1.31
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.RasenBallsport Leipzig win
62.9%
Draw
21.2%
Wolfsburg win
15.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
RasenBallsport Leipzig are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWWWWLWLWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.28–1.10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.48–1.25 | 2-1 9% | 72% | 65% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
RasenBallsport Leipzig 2.51 xGWolfsburg 0.69 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking right
Wolfsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.33 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 6' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 7' |
 Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jeanuël Belocian |
| 9' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 18' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 26' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Benjamin Henrichs |
| 31' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Willi Orban | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 33' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Henrichs | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 35' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lovro Majer |
| 40' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 40' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Conrad Harder |
| 45' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Benjamin Henrichs |
| 48' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 51' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Adam Daghim |
| 55' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 64' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Denis Vavro |
| 66' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Bote Baku |
| 69' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Brajan Gruda |
| 72' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 77' |
Wolfsburg |
Mattias Svanberg | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jeanuël Belocian |
| 78' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Wolfsburg |
Denis Vavro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 87' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Xaver Schlager |
| 88' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 92' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Xaver Schlager |
| 95' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 97' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Denis Vavro |
Players
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brajan Gruda AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.53 | 1.32 | 1.56 |
| Yan Diomande AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.09 | 1.29 |
| Christoph Baumgartner DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Xaver Schlager DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1.43 |
| Max Finkgrafe DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.29 |
| Antonio Nusa AML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| Nicolas Seiwald DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Conrad Harder FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Benjamin Henrichs DR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.56 |
| Maarten Vandevoordt Sub | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Péter Gulácsi GK | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rômulo Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Bote Baku Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.81 |
| Johan Bakayoko Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Castello Lukeba Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Daghim AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.60 |
| Christian Eriksen DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Denis Vavro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Maximilian Arnold DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jeanuël Belocian DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| Sael Kumbedi DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Mohammed Amoura FW | 86 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.55 |
| Lovro Majer AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.43 |
| Kento Shiogai AML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mattias Svanberg Sub | 28 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonas Adjetey Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |