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St. Pauli v Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 26 October 2024 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

0–0
0.73 – 0.94 xG
Shots
15 – 10
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 6
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.30 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-0.74 – -0.95
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.50.81.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'
St. Pauli 0.74 xGWolfsburg 0.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Mohammed Amoura 9' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Johannes Eggestein 14' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jackson Irvine 18' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Joakim Maehle 30' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Karol Mets 35' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Manolis Saliakas 35' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Manolis Saliakas 35' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Morgan Guilavogui 37' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jackson Irvine 41' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Mohammed Amoura 45' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Jonas Wind 46' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Mohammed Amoura 47' — Saved Shot (0.43 xG, Open Play)Danel Sinani 49' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Johannes Eggestein 57' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Danel Sinani 62' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Danel Sinani 64' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Morgan Guilavogui 67' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Morgan Guilavogui 67' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Mohammed Amoura 72' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Tiago Tomás 80' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Tiago Tomás 80' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Konstantinos Koulierakis 86' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Eric Smith 91' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Kevin Behrens 92' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Scott Banks 93' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Set Piece)
St. Pauli attacking right Wolfsburg attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
9' Wolfsburg Mohammed Amoura 0.03 Open Play Missed Shot Denis Vavro
14' St. Pauli Johannes Eggestein 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Danel Sinani
18' St. Pauli Jackson Irvine 0.07 From Corner Missed Shot Eric Smith
30' Wolfsburg Joakim Maehle 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Salih Özcan
35' St. Pauli Karol Mets 0.07 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Johannes Eggestein
35' St. Pauli Manolis Saliakas 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Eric Smith
35' St. Pauli Manolis Saliakas 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
37' St. Pauli Morgan Guilavogui 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jackson Irvine
41' St. Pauli Jackson Irvine 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Morgan Guilavogui
45' Wolfsburg Mohammed Amoura 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Bote Baku
46' Wolfsburg Jonas Wind 0.08 From Corner Saved Shot Salih Özcan
47' Wolfsburg Mohammed Amoura 0.43 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Tiago Tomás
49' St. Pauli Danel Sinani 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Manolis Saliakas
57' St. Pauli Johannes Eggestein 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
62' St. Pauli Danel Sinani 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Morgan Guilavogui
64' St. Pauli Danel Sinani 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Johannes Eggestein
67' St. Pauli Morgan Guilavogui 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Oladapo Afolayan
67' St. Pauli Morgan Guilavogui 0.03 Open Play Missed Shot Oladapo Afolayan
72' Wolfsburg Mohammed Amoura 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jonas Wind
80' Wolfsburg Tiago Tomás 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mohammed Amoura
80' Wolfsburg Tiago Tomás 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
86' Wolfsburg Konstantinos Koulierakis 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Denis Vavro
91' St. Pauli Eric Smith 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot
92' Wolfsburg Kevin Behrens 0.06 From Corner Missed Shot Jakub Kaminski
93' St. Pauli Scott Banks 0.03 Set Piece Missed Shot Oladapo Afolayan

Players

St. Pauli

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jackson Irvine MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.18 0.03 0.27
Morgan Guilavogui FWL 90 0 0 3 2 0.14 0.15 0.31
Karol Mets DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.13
Manolis Saliakas DMR 90 0 0 2 1 0.07 0.02 0.02
Eric Smith DC 90 0 0 1 2 0.05 0.10 0.18
Nikola Vasilj GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Philipp Treu DML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Hauke Wahl DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Carlo Boukhalfa MC 89 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.13
Johannes Eggestein FW 84 0 0 2 2 0.09 0.11 0.15
Danel Sinani FWR 68 0 0 3 1 0.10 0.04 0.24
Oladapo Afolayan Sub 22 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.14 0.12
Scott Banks Sub 6 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.00
Robert Wagner Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Wolfsburg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mohammed Amoura FW 90 0 0 4 1 0.62 0.07 0.72
Tiago Tomás ML 90 0 0 2 1 0.15 0.43 0.61
Joakim Maehle DL 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.06
Konstantinos Koulierakis DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.14
Salih Özcan MC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.10 0.14
Kamil Grabara GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Denis Vavro DC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.05 0.57
Bote Baku MR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.11 0.64
Yannick Gerhardt MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jonas Wind FW 80 0 0 1 1 0.08 0.05 0.05
Kilian Fischer DR 69 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Jakub Kaminski Sub 21 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.00
Lovro Majer Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kevin Behrens Sub 1 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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