St. Pauli v Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 16 May 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 19
On target
2 – 10
Shots in box
7 – 16
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
0.55 – 2.06
Goals − xG
-0.99 – -1.30
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.St. Pauli win
35.1%
Draw
25.8%
Wolfsburg win
39.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.30–1.39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.29–1.37 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 54% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
St. Pauli 1.99 xGWolfsburg 4.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
St. Pauli attacking right
Wolfsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Wolfsburg |
Mattias Svanberg | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
 St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Louis Oppie |
| 22' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dzenan Pejcinovic |
| 22' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.60 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Vinicius Souza |
| 22' |
Wolfsburg |
Vinicius Souza | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 27' |
Wolfsburg |
Mattias Svanberg | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 29' |
St. Pauli |
Martijn Kaars | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
St. Pauli |
Tomoya Ando | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Connor Metcalfe |
| 31' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 32' |
Wolfsburg |
Vinicius Souza | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Christian Eriksen |
| 33' |
St. Pauli |
Connor Metcalfe | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 36' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.50 | From Corner | — | Goal | Christian Eriksen |
| 41' |
St. Pauli |
Andréas Hountondji | 0.68 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martijn Kaars |
| 45' |
Wolfsburg |
Mattias Svanberg | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adam Daghim |
| 56' |
St. Pauli |
Abdoulie Ceesay | 0.38 | From Corner | — | Goal | Connor Metcalfe |
| 58' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Konstantinos Koulierakis |
| 62' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 63' |
St. Pauli |
Nikola Vasilj | 0.00 | From Corner | — | Own Goal | — |
| 68' |
St. Pauli |
Connor Metcalfe | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
St. Pauli |
Abdoulie Ceesay | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Connor Metcalfe |
| 72' |
Wolfsburg |
Yannick Gerhardt | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dzenan Pejcinovic |
| 76' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.76 | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — | |
| 79' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yannick Gerhardt |
| 79' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 87' |
St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.63 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ricky-Jade Jones |
| 89' |
St. Pauli |
Abdoulie Ceesay | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Wolfsburg |
Joakim Maehle | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 94' |
Wolfsburg |
Sael Kumbedi | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yannick Gerhardt |
Players
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Irvine MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Tomoya Ando DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Connor Metcalfe AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.55 | 0.12 |
| Joel Chima Fujita MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Martijn Kaars FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| Louis Oppie ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.69 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Adam Dzwigala DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Andréas Hountondji FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Abdoulie Ceesay Sub | 43 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Ricky-Jade Jones Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| Taichi Hara Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathias Rasmussen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Eriksen MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1.21 | 1.17 | 0.95 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.59 | 0.47 | 1.44 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.04 | 0.39 |
| Vinicius Souza DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Sael Kumbedi MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Joakim Maehle ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Denis Vavro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeanuël Belocian DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Adam Daghim FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.29 | 0.04 | 0.74 |
| Mattias Svanberg MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Yannick Gerhardt Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.52 | 0.68 |
| Lovro Majer Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Mohammed Amoura Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kento Shiogai Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |