Torino v Verona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 6 April 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 13
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
3 – 10
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.80 – 0.12
Goals − xG
+0.04 – -0.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Torino win
51.4%
Draw
29.6%
Verona win
19.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.62–0.92 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.18–0.99 | 1-0 13% | 37% | 44% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Torino 0.96 xGVerona 1.32 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Torino attacking right
Verona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ondrej Duda |
| 12' |
 Torino |
Cristiano Biraghi | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Saúl Coco |
| 14' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Bernede |
| 15' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ondrej Duda |
| 18' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Eljif Elmas |
| 20' |
Torino |
Eljif Elmas | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cesare Casadei |
| 26' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolás Valentini |
| 27' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Daniele Ghilardi |
| 29' |
Torino |
Saúl Coco | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Verona |
Antoine Bernede | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Domagoj Bradaric |
| 39' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolás Valentini |
| 53' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Domagoj Bradaric |
| 54' |
Verona |
Nicolás Valentini | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Bernede |
| 56' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolás Valentini |
| 57' |
Torino |
Eljif Elmas | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Che Adams |
| 61' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 63' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.71 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 66' |
Torino |
Eljif Elmas | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Nikola Vlasic |
| 90' |
Verona |
Nicolás Valentini | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Grigoris Kastanos |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eljif Elmas AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Cristiano Biraghi DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Guillermo Maripán DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Nikola Vlasic AMC | 89 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| Samuele Ricci DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Che Adams FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.80 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Cesare Casadei DMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Gvidas Gineitis AMR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Marcus Pedersen Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Yann Karamoh Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Sanabria Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ivan Ilic Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Karol Linetty Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Valentini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jackson Tchatchoua DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Domagoj Bradaric DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| Diego Coppola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Pawel Dawidowicz MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Daniele Ghilardi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Ondrej Duda MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| Amin Sarr FW | 81 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.01 | 0.00 | 1.07 |
| Antoine Bernede MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.31 |
| Daniel Mosquera FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Dailon Livramento Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Junior Ajayi Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Grigoris Kastanos Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Darko Lazovic Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |