Torino v Verona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 11 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 18
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 10
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.58
Goals − xG
+0.84 – -0.68
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Torino win
49.2%
Draw
26.6%
Verona win
24.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.52–0.99 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.44–0.96 | 1-0 13% | 43% | 47% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Torino 1.16 xGVerona 1.68 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Torino attacking right
Verona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Verona |
Abdou Harroui | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 2' |
Verona |
Rafik Belghali | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 5' |
 Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marcus Pedersen |
| 10' |
Verona |
Roberto Gagliardini | 0.37 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Martin Frese |
| 14' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cesare Casadei |
| 26' |
Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Verona |
Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Verona |
Roberto Gagliardini | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lorenzo Montipò |
| 39' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marcus Pedersen |
| 40' |
Verona |
Antoine Bernede | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kieron Bowie |
| 42' |
Verona |
Roberto Gagliardini | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Abdou Harroui |
| 45' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 46' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Enzo Ebosse |
| 46' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 47' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Pedersen |
| 49' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Rafael Obrador |
| 49' |
Torino |
Rafael Obrador | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro |
| 57' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Roberto Gagliardini |
| 64' |
Verona |
Nicolás Valentini | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Martin Frese |
| 70' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Martin Frese |
| 72' |
Verona |
Domagoj Bradaric | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 73' |
Verona |
Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Domagoj Bradaric |
| 74' |
Verona |
Domagoj Bradaric | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Verona |
Domagoj Bradaric | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Frese |
| 89' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Domagoj Bradaric |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovanni Simeone FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Cesare Casadei MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.14 | 0.93 |
| Alberto Paleari GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Vlasic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.39 |
| Marcus Pedersen DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| Ardian Ismajli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Rafael Obrador DML | 86 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| Enzo Ebosse DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.35 |
| Che Adams FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Gvidas Gineitis MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Luca Marianucci Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sandro Kulenovic Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Prati Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cristiano Biraghi Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Guillermo Maripán Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Gagliardini MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.10 | 0.51 |
| Kieron Bowie FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| Daniel Oyegoke DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Victor Nelsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Rafik Belghali DML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Frese DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.95 | 0.58 |
| Antoine Bernede MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Abdou Harroui FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Andrias Edmundsson DC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gift Orban Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Nicolás Valentini Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Domagoj Bradaric Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.42 |
| Daniel Mosquera Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amin Sarr Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |