Udinese v Verona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 25 August 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 9
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 2
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.55 – 0.68
Goals − xG
-0.05 – +0.18
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Udinese win
43.4%
Draw
30.9%
Verona win
25.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLDWWLLDW last 10
scored 14
from 14.7 xG
conceded 9
from 14.5 xG
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.30–0.95 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.37–1.02 | 1-1 13% | 43% | 48% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Udinese 1.05 xGVerona 0.82 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Udinese attacking right
Verona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Verona |
Domagoj Bradaric | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
 Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jordan Zemura |
| 21' |
Udinese |
Jordan Zemura | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 28' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Bertola |
| 36' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 38' |
Verona |
Antoine Bernede | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fallou Cham |
| 40' |
Verona |
Giovane | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fallou Cham |
| 43' |
Udinese |
Thomas Thiesson Kristensen | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Iker Bravo |
| 47' |
Verona |
Martin Frese | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Verona |
Giovane | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 51' |
Verona |
Giovane | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Antoine Bernede |
| 52' |
Udinese |
Thomas Thiesson Kristensen | 0.52 | From Corner | — | Goal | Sandi Lovric |
| 56' |
Udinese |
Sandi Lovric | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Iker Bravo |
| 59' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Suat Serdar |
| 62' |
Udinese |
Oier Zarraga | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Bertola |
| 63' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 72' |
Verona |
Giovane | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Martin Frese |
| 72' |
Verona |
Suat Serdar | 0.61 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Giovane |
| 82' |
Udinese |
Hassane Kamara | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 86' |
Udinese |
Hassane Kamara | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Thomas Thiesson Kristensen |
| 87' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 92' |
Udinese |
Hassane Kamara | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jakub Piotrowski |
Players
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.01 | 0.13 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Arthur Atta MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Razvan Sava GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Nicolò Bertola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Jordan Zemura DML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| Keinan Davis FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| Sandi Lovric MC | 61 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.52 | 0.32 |
| Iker Bravo FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| Oier Zarraga Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Vakoun Bayo Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jakub Piotrowski Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Hassane Kamara Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovane FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.61 | 0.07 |
| Martin Frese DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Antoine Bernede MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Unai Núñez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Victor Nelsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Suat Serdar MC | 82 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Fallou Cham DMR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Domagoj Bradaric DML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Amin Sarr FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Cheikh Niasse MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdou Harroui Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Mosquera Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rafik Belghali Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enzo Ebosse Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Oyegoke Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |