Union Berlin v Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 6 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 12
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 10
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.88 – 0.01
Goals − xG
-0.61 – -1.80
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Union Berlin win
31.0%
Draw
30.4%
Wolfsburg win
38.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Union Berlin have scored 15 from 14.2 expected and conceded 21 from 20.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWDLLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 14.2 xG
conceded 21
from 20.5 xG
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.28–1.44 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Union Berlin 1.61 xGWolfsburg 1.80 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Union Berlin attacking right
Wolfsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 1' |
Union Berlin |
Rani Khedira | 0.71 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 4' |
 Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 11' |
Wolfsburg |
Joakim Maehle | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
Union Berlin |
Janik Haberer | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 24' |
Union Berlin |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rani Khedira |
| 25' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jonas Wind |
| 27' |
Wolfsburg |
David Odogu | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 28' |
Union Berlin |
Janik Haberer | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 35' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kilian Fischer |
| 35' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 39' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 41' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 51' |
Wolfsburg |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jonas Wind |
| 52' |
Union Berlin |
Andras Schafer | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Union Berlin |
Janik Haberer | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Union Berlin |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Leopold Querfeld |
| 67' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rani Khedira |
| 74' |
Wolfsburg |
Kilian Fischer | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonas Wind |
| 77' |
Union Berlin |
Josip Juranovic | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Wolfsburg |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 88' |
Wolfsburg |
Kevin Behrens | 0.95 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Union Berlin |
Lucas Tousart | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rani Khedira |
| 93' |
Union Berlin |
Andras Schafer | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Tousart |
Players
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.71 | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| Janik Haberer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| Andras Schafer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Josip Juranovic DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diogo Leite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Benedict Hollerbach FW | 81 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Christopher Trimmel DMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Marin Ljubicic Sub | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrej Ilic FW | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jérôme Roussillon Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Tousart Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Wimmer FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 1.13 |
| Jakub Kaminski MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| Kilian Fischer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| David Odogu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Maximilian Arnold MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Yannick Gerhardt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jonas Wind AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| Mohammed Amoura FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Aster Vranckx MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Joakim Maehle ML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Tiago Tomás Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Behrens Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Lukas Nmecha Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |