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Verona v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 8 February 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

0–5
1.79 – 2.15 xG
Shots
18 – 17
On target
6 – 7
Shots in box
10 – 15
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.88 – 0.65
Goals − xG
-1.84 – +2.82
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.21.82.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Mateo Retegui 20' — goalMateo Retegui 24' — goalÉderson 36' — goalMateo Retegui 43' — goalMateo Retegui 55' — goal
Verona 1.84 xGAtalanta 2.18 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Mateo Retegui 2' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Mateo Retegui 3' — Missed Shot (0.17 xG, Open Play)Éderson 8' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Antoine Bernede 13' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Daniele Ghilardi 13' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Berat Gjimshiti 16' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Tomás Suslov 19' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Charles De Ketelaere 20' — Shot On Post (0.06 xG, Open Play)Mateo Retegui 20' — Goal (0.48 xG, Open Play)Juan Cuadrado 23' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Mateo Retegui 24' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)Cheikh Niasse 31' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Tomás Suslov 31' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Stefan Posch 33' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Charles De Ketelaere 34' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Éderson 36' — Goal (0.14 xG, Open Play)Daniele Ghilardi 38' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Stefan Posch 42' — Shot On Post (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Mateo Retegui 43' — Goal (0.42 xG, Set Piece)Tomás Suslov 51' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Mateo Retegui 55' — Goal (0.14 xG, Open Play)Daniel Mosquera 57' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Diego Coppola 57' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Mario Pasalic 60' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Jackson Tchatchoua 65' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Mateo Retegui 69' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Tomás Suslov 72' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Daniel Mosquera 74' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Jackson Tchatchoua 74' — Saved Shot (0.42 xG, Open Play)Diego Coppola 75' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Davide Zappacosta 78' — Missed Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Daniel Mosquera 80' — Blocked Shot (0.57 xG, From Corner)Grigoris Kastanos 80' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Grigoris Kastanos 81' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Pawel Dawidowicz 90' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Verona attacking right Atalanta attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Charles De Ketelaere
3' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.17 Open Play Missed Shot
8' Atalanta Éderson 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
13' Verona Antoine Bernede 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Amin Sarr
13' Verona Daniele Ghilardi 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
16' Atalanta Berat Gjimshiti 0.07 Set Piece Missed Shot Marten de Roon
19' Verona Tomás Suslov 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
20' Atalanta Charles De Ketelaere 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Marten de Roon
20' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.48 Open Play Left Foot Goal
23' Atalanta Juan Cuadrado 0.03 Open Play Missed Shot Davide Zappacosta
24' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Goal Berat Gjimshiti
31' Verona Cheikh Niasse 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Amin Sarr
31' Verona Tomás Suslov 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Amin Sarr
33' Atalanta Stefan Posch 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Juan Cuadrado
34' Atalanta Charles De Ketelaere 0.07 From Corner Saved Shot Juan Cuadrado
36' Atalanta Éderson 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Goal
38' Verona Daniele Ghilardi 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Tomás Suslov
42' Atalanta Stefan Posch 0.05 Set Piece Shot On Post Marten de Roon
43' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.42 Set Piece Right Foot Goal
51' Verona Tomás Suslov 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Amin Sarr
55' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.14 Open Play Left Foot Goal Marten de Roon
57' Verona Daniel Mosquera 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Diego Coppola
57' Verona Diego Coppola 0.05 From Corner Missed Shot Domagoj Bradaric
60' Atalanta Mario Pasalic 0.04 From Corner Blocked Shot Juan Cuadrado
65' Verona Jackson Tchatchoua 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
69' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
72' Verona Tomás Suslov 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Grigoris Kastanos
74' Verona Daniel Mosquera 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
74' Verona Jackson Tchatchoua 0.42 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Grigoris Kastanos
75' Verona Diego Coppola 0.09 From Corner Saved Shot Grigoris Kastanos
78' Atalanta Davide Zappacosta 0.14 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Mateo Retegui
80' Verona Daniel Mosquera 0.57 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
80' Verona Grigoris Kastanos 0.04 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot
81' Verona Grigoris Kastanos 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
90' Verona Pawel Dawidowicz 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jackson Tchatchoua

Players

Verona

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Daniel Mosquera FW 90 0 0 3 0 0.75 0.00 0.60
Jackson Tchatchoua MR 90 0 0 2 1 0.47 0.02 0.56
Diego Coppola DC 90 0 0 2 1 0.14 0.06 0.00
Daniele Ghilardi DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.08
Cheikh Niasse MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
Lorenzo Montipò GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tomás Suslov AMC 80 0 0 4 1 0.27 0.05 0.26
Flavius Daniliuc DC 70 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Antoine Bernede MC 63 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.24
Domagoj Bradaric ML 63 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.11
Amin Sarr FW 63 0 0 0 4 0.00 0.25 0.25
Grigoris Kastanos Sub 27 0 0 2 3 0.05 0.53 0.43
Pawel Dawidowicz Sub 27 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.44
Daniel Oyegoke Sub 27 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nicolás Valentini Sub 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mathis Lambourde Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Atalanta

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mateo Retegui FW 90 4 0 7 1 1.49 0.14 1.30
Stefan Posch DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.12 0.00 0.44
Juan Cuadrado DMR 90 0 0 1 3 0.03 0.17 0.34
Isak Hien DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.46
Rui Patrício GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.19
Lazar Samardzic AMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.20
Davide Zappacosta DML 83 0 0 1 1 0.14 0.03 0.59
Marten de Roon MC 73 0 1 0 4 0.00 0.32 0.48
Éderson MC 60 1 0 2 0 0.16 0.00 0.37
Berat Gjimshiti DC 60 0 1 1 1 0.07 0.10 0.48
Charles De Ketelaere AMC 47 0 0 2 1 0.13 0.11 0.77
Marco Brescianini Sub 43 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Mario Pasalic Sub 30 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.00
Rafael Toloi Sub 30 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sulemana Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marco Palestra Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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