Verona v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 9 March 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 12
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
5 – 7
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.17
Goals − xG
-0.28 – +0.62
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Verona win
15.8%
Draw
25.1%
Bologna win
59.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Bologna have scored 13 from 14.7 expected and conceded 15 from 14.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWDLLDLDWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.7 xG
conceded 15
from 14.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.98–2.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Verona 1.28 xGBologna 1.38 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Verona attacking right
Bologna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
 Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antoine Bernede |
| 38' |
Verona |
Nicolás Valentini | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Ondrej Duda |
| 39' |
Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Davide Calabria |
| 47' |
Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dan Ndoye |
| 48' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jackson Tchatchoua |
| 51' |
Bologna |
Dan Ndoye | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jens Odgaard |
| 53' |
Bologna |
Michel Aebischer | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Bologna |
Michel Aebischer | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jens Odgaard |
| 68' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dan Ndoye |
| 70' |
Bologna |
Juan Miranda | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
Verona |
Casper Tengstedt | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amin Sarr |
| 77' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Benjamín Domínguez |
| 79' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Casper Tengstedt |
| 79' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.59 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 90' |
Verona |
Darko Lazovic | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Bologna |
Thijs Dallinga | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dan Ndoye |
Players
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Miranda DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Dan Ndoye AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| Sam Beukema DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Lukasz Skorupski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Ferguson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jhon Lucumí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Davide Calabria DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| Santiago Castro FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jens Odgaard AMC | 69 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.11 | 0.61 |
| Riccardo Orsolini AMR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nikola Moro DMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michel Aebischer Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi Sub | 30 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Benjamín Domínguez Sub | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Thijs Dallinga Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pawel Dawidowicz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Ondrej Duda MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.51 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Jackson Tchatchoua DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Diego Coppola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Cheikh Niasse MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amin Sarr FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Tomás Suslov AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás Valentini DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Domagoj Bradaric DML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antoine Bernede AMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Casper Tengstedt Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| Darko Lazovic Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Daniel Mosquera Sub | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.09 | 0.00 | 1.09 |
| Grigoris Kastanos Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dailon Livramento Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |