Verona v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 28 April 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.09–1.22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.30–1.23 | 1-1 13% | 46% | 51% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Expected goals by minute
Reading the shot map
Shot map
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Verona |
Tomás Suslov | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
 Cagliari |
Zito | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Razvan Marin |
| 19' |
Cagliari |
Razvan Marin | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antoine Makoumbou |
| 28' |
Cagliari |
Ndary Adopo | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Tommaso Augello |
| 29' |
Cagliari |
Leonardo Pavoletti | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Zito |
| 37' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.12 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolás Valentini |
| 40' |
Verona |
Ondrej Duda | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jackson Tchatchoua |
| 66' |
Cagliari |
Razvan Marin | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Verona |
Mathis Lambourde | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Grigoris Kastanos |
| 92' |
Cagliari |
Alessandro Deiola | 0.80 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Gianluca Gaetano |
Players
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ndary Adopo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1.41 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nadir Zortea DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Tommaso Augello DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.61 |
| José Luis Palomino DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Gabriele Zappa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Antoine Makoumbou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Zito FW | 86 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.61 | 0.98 |
| Razvan Marin MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| Leonardo Pavoletti FW | 78 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Kingstone Mutandwa Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Alessandro Deiola Sub | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Gianluca Gaetano Sub | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ondrej Duda DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Diego Coppola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jackson Tchatchoua MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Amin Sarr FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniele Ghilardi DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Suat Serdar MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás Valentini DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 |
| Antoine Bernede Sub | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Daniel Mosquera FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Domagoj Bradaric ML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Darko Lazovic Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mathis Lambourde Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Tomás Suslov MC | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Grigoris Kastanos Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Dailon Livramento Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |