Verona v Como — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 May 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 12
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
10 – 6
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-1.22 – -0.12
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Verona win
19.9%
Draw
28.8%
Como win
51.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.91–1.58 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.98–1.33 | 0-1 13% | 41% | 46% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Verona 2.22 xGComo 1.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Verona attacking right
Como attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Verona |
Daniele Ghilardi | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Domagoj Bradaric |
| 8' |
Verona |
Jackson Tchatchoua | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
 Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nico Paz |
| 18' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tasos Douvikas |
| 28' |
Como |
Maxence Caqueret | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Tasos Douvikas |
| 32' |
Como |
Alberto Moreno | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 33' |
Verona |
Jackson Tchatchoua | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amin Sarr |
| 36' |
Verona |
Suat Serdar | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Bernede |
| 41' |
Verona |
Nicolás Valentini | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Antoine Bernede |
| 43' |
Como |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 44' |
Verona |
Suat Serdar | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Verona |
Diego Coppola | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Domagoj Bradaric |
| 58' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 64' |
Verona |
Domagoj Bradaric | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amin Sarr |
| 65' |
Como |
Patrick Cutrone | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Strefezza |
| 66' |
Como |
Marc-Oliver Kempf | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.38 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Domagoj Bradaric |
| 68' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.66 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
Verona |
Darko Lazovic | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 77' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 84' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Edoardo Goldaniga |
| 91' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cheikh Niasse |
| 91' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 91' |
Verona |
Darko Lazovic | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Verona |
Martin Frese | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Cheikh Niasse |
| 94' |
Verona |
Nicolás Valentini | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Martin Frese |
| 95' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Máximo Perrone |
Players
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suat Serdar MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Nicolás Valentini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jackson Tchatchoua MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Daniele Ghilardi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diego Coppola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amin Sarr FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1.04 | 0.05 | 1.09 |
| Domagoj Bradaric ML | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| Pawel Dawidowicz MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Antoine Bernede AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Casper Tengstedt FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Darko Lazovic Sub | 27 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Daniel Mosquera Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Cheikh Niasse Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Martin Frese Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| Grigoris Kastanos Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Paz AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.80 | 0.02 | 0.96 |
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.69 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Gabriel Strefezza AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.63 |
| Edoardo Goldaniga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.76 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.63 |
| Alberto Moreno DL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Maxence Caqueret AMC | 62 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Tasos Douvikas FW | 62 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| Ignace Van der Brempt DR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Patrick Cutrone Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Mergim Vojvoda Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Jonathan Ikone Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Álex Valle Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Gabrielloni Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |