Verona v Como — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 10 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 11
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 10
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.21
Goals − xG
-1.29 – -0.06
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Verona win
12.4%
Draw
19.3%
Como win
68.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.67–1.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.80–1.51 | 0-1 15% | 41% | 43% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Verona 1.29 xGComo 1.06 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Verona attacking right
Como attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Verona |
Tomás Suslov | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 20' |
Verona |
Martin Frese | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Antoine Bernede |
| 23' |
 Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marc-Oliver Kempf |
| 29' |
Como |
Marc-Oliver Kempf | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 31' |
Verona |
Antoine Bernede | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.75 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Verona |
Victor Nelsson | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Tomás Suslov |
| 39' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 40' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ivan Smolcic |
| 46' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 56' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 58' |
Verona |
Antoine Bernede | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rafik Belghali |
| 69' |
Como |
Marc-Oliver Kempf | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 70' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marc-Oliver Kempf |
| 73' |
Verona |
Nicolás Valentini | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sandi Lovric |
| 73' |
Verona |
Tomás Suslov | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rafik Belghali |
| 80' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tasos Douvikas |
| 82' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 83' |
Como |
Marc-Oliver Kempf | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 91' |
Verona |
Nicolás Valentini | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Sandi Lovric |
Players
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieron Bowie FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.83 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Tomás Suslov AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| Victor Nelsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Frese DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nicolás Valentini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrias Edmundsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Roberto Gagliardini MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rafik Belghali DMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Antoine Bernede MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Sandi Lovric Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Isaac Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ioan Vermesan Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.52 | 0.13 | 0.69 |
| Tasos Douvikas FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| Nico Paz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| Diego Carlos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Assane Diao AMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Alberto Moreno Sub | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Jesús Rodriguez AML | 48 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Mergim Vojvoda DR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Martin Baturina Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| Maxence Caqueret Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Ivan Smolcic Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Álex Valle DL | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ignace Van der Brempt Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |