Verona v Cremonese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 15 September 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 6
On target
9 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 2
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-1.89 – -0.17
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Verona win
27.1%
Draw
25.4%
Cremonese win
47.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 8.8 xG
conceded 17
from 11.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.10–1.55 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 53% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Verona 1.89 xGCremonese 0.17 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Verona attacking right
Cremonese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Domagoj Bradaric |
| 5' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Suat Serdar |
| 9' |
 Cremonese |
Antonio Sanabria | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jari Vandeputte |
| 12' |
Cremonese |
Warren Bondo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jari Vandeputte |
| 15' |
Verona |
Giovane | 0.17 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Suat Serdar |
| 20' |
Verona |
Giovane | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Suat Serdar |
| 21' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Verona |
Unai Núñez | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Martin Frese |
| 29' |
Verona |
Giovane | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gift Orban |
| 30' |
Verona |
Giovane | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Martin Frese |
| 33' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Suat Serdar |
| 38' |
Verona |
Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Bernede |
| 41' |
Verona |
Domagoj Bradaric | 0.25 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Giovane |
| 44' |
Verona |
Suat Serdar | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Verona |
Giovane | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rafik Belghali |
| 54' |
Verona |
Giovane | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Domagoj Bradaric |
| 55' |
Verona |
Suat Serdar | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
Verona |
Giovane | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Suat Serdar |
| 61' |
Verona |
Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giovane |
| 64' |
Verona |
Giovane | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Cremonese |
Filippo Terracciano | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Jeremy Sarmiento |
| 65' |
Cremonese |
Michele Collocolo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jeremy Sarmiento |
| 90' |
Cremonese |
Jeremy Sarmiento | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 92' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cheikh Niasse |
Players
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovane FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.32 | 1.00 |
| Domagoj Bradaric ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.06 | 0.72 |
| Suat Serdar MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.11 | 1.05 | 1.31 |
| Unai Núñez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Victor Nelsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Rafik Belghali MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Gift Orban FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.01 | 1.21 |
| Antoine Bernede MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.31 |
| Martin Frese DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro Sub | 53 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Roberto Gagliardini DMC | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Armel Bella Kotchap Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amin Sarr Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Cheikh Niasse Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Al Musrati Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cremonese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filippo Terracciano DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Michele Collocolo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Federico Baschirotto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Matteo Bianchetti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Emil Audero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessio Zerbin DMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Antonio Sanabria FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Warren Bondo MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Federico Bonazzoli FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jari Vandeputte MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Jeremy Sarmiento Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| Alberto Grassi Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jamie Vardy Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Franco Vázquez Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Romano Floriani Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |