Verona v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 5
On target
8 – 1
Shots in box
9 – 2
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.15
Goals − xG
-0.92 – +0.69
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Verona win
21.3%
Draw
26.1%
Fiorentina win
52.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWDLLLWDLL last 10
scored 11
from 13.6 xG
conceded 18
from 17.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.91–1.57 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.08–1.37 | 1-1 13% | 44% | 49% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Verona 0.92 xGFiorentina 0.31 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Verona attacking right
Fiorentina attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Fiorentina |
Nicolo Fagioli | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 9' |
 Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro |
| 10' |
Verona |
Antoine Bernede | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kieron Bowie |
| 17' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.10 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marin Pongracic |
| 28' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rafik Belghali |
| 29' |
Verona |
Rafik Belghali | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Roberto Gagliardini |
| 30' |
Verona |
Martin Frese | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Roberto Gagliardini |
| 31' |
Verona |
Andrias Edmundsson | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Martin Frese |
| 31' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antoine Bernede |
| 35' |
Verona |
Daniel Oyegoke | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Roberto Gagliardini |
| 36' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Verona |
Daniel Oyegoke | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kieron Bowie |
| 44' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 45' |
Verona |
Martin Frese | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kieron Bowie |
| 47' |
Verona |
Rafik Belghali | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antoine Bernede |
| 53' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gift Orban |
| 56' |
Verona |
Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rafik Belghali |
| 64' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rafik Belghali |
| 72' |
Verona |
Martin Frese | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Verona |
Rafik Belghali | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kieron Bowie |
| 76' |
Verona |
Tomás Suslov | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Fiorentina |
Nicolo Fagioli | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jack Harrison |
| 87' |
Verona |
Rafik Belghali | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Roberto Gagliardini |
| 91' |
Verona |
Roberto Gagliardini | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Martin Frese |
| 94' |
Verona |
Andrias Edmundsson | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Domagoj Bradaric |
Players
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolo Fagioli MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Luca Ranieri DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jack Harrison FWR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| Pietro Comuzzo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cher Ndour MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Albert Gudmundsson FWL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Moise Kean FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Robin Gosens DL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Fabbian MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Roberto Piccoli Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luís Balbo Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacopo Fazzini Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Brescianini Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniele Rugani Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieron Bowie FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.27 | 0.16 | 0.48 |
| Rafik Belghali DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 0.37 |
| Andrias Edmundsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Martin Frese DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.37 |
| Roberto Gagliardini MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Victor Nelsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Antoine Bernede MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| Daniel Oyegoke DMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Gift Orban FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 0.26 |
| Amin Sarr Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Domagoj Bradaric Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Tomás Suslov Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Mosquera Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |