Verona v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 11
On target
1 – 3
Shots in box
3 – 7
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.15
Goals − xG
-0.37 – +1.47
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Verona win
21.9%
Draw
27.1%
Genoa win
51.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.88–1.49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.12–1.20 | 1-1 13% | 41% | 47% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Verona 0.37 xGGenoa 0.53 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Verona attacking right
Genoa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Genoa |
Caleb Ekuban | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Junior Messias |
| 9' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Leo Østigard |
| 11' |
 Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Oyegoke |
| 14' |
Genoa |
Junior Messias | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 32' |
Genoa |
Junior Messias | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro |
| 42' |
Verona |
Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Verona |
Abdou Harroui | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Frese |
| 51' |
Genoa |
Stefano Sabelli | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 56' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 60' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 69' |
Verona |
Nicolás Valentini | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gift Orban |
| 71' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Rafik Belghali |
| 85' |
Genoa |
Leo Østigard | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Aarón Martín |
| 89' |
Genoa |
Jeff Ekhator | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Verona |
Tomás Suslov | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Morten Frendrup MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mikael Ellertsson DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Justin Bijlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Junior Messias MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| Stefano Sabelli DML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Caleb Ekuban FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Vitinha Sub | 29 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Amorim Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aarón Martín Sub | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Jeff Ekhator Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Valentini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kieron Bowie FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Andrias Edmundsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Roberto Gagliardini MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Victor Nelsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Gift Orban FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| Martin Frese DML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Abdou Harroui MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Daniel Oyegoke DMR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Rafik Belghali Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| Tomás Suslov Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amin Sarr Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Mosquera Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |