Verona v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 2 November 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 21
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
5 – 13
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.35
Goals − xG
+0.63 – +0.84
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Verona win
10.9%
Draw
20.0%
Internazionale win
69.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Internazionale have scored 28 from 28.3 expected and conceded 13 from 12.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDDWWWWDWW last 10
scored 28
from 28.3 xG
conceded 13
from 12.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.75–2.16 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.86–2.13 | 0-2 11% | 57% | 51% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Verona 0.37 xGInternazionale 1.16 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Verona attacking right
Internazionale attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Internazionale |
Piotr Zielinski | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Augusto |
| 6' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 7' |
Internazionale |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 11' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Petar Sucic |
| 12' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Petar Sucic |
| 15' |
Internazionale |
Piotr Zielinski | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 20' |
 Verona |
Rafik Belghali | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Giovane |
| 23' |
Verona |
Domagoj Bradaric | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Internazionale |
Alessandro Bastoni | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Luis Henrique |
| 25' |
Internazionale |
Carlos Augusto | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Verona |
Giovane | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gift Orban |
| 28' |
Verona |
Martin Frese | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Giovane |
| 30' |
Internazionale |
Yann Bisseck | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 37' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rafik Belghali |
| 39' |
Verona |
Giovane | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Gift Orban |
| 47' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Rafik Belghali |
| 52' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 73' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Francesco Pio Esposito |
| 81' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 83' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 84' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 84' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Internazionale |
Davide Frattesi | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 92' |
Verona |
Martin Frese | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 94' |
Verona |
Abdou Harroui | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cheikh Niasse |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lautaro Martínez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.67 |
| Alessandro Bastoni DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Yann Bisseck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Yann Sommer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Petar Sucic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Carlos Augusto DML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny FW | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Piotr Zielinski MC | 58 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Luis Henrique DMR | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Nicolò Barella Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Denzel Dumfries Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Dimarco Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| Davide Frattesi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafik Belghali DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| Martin Frese DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Domagoj Bradaric DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Roberto Gagliardini MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Armel Bella Kotchap DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Victor Nelsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Giovane FW | 83 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Gift Orban FW | 76 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.26 |
| Antoine Bernede MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Daniel Mosquera Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Cheikh Niasse Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Amin Sarr Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdou Harroui Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |