Verona v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 May 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 11
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
3 – 3
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.43 – 0.06
Goals − xG
+0.52 – -0.25
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Verona win
36.4%
Draw
33.0%
Lecce win
30.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Lecce are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWLLWLLW last 10
scored 13
from 16.0 xG
conceded 15
from 23.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.16–1.05 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–1.05 | 1-1 13% | 43% | 48% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Verona 0.48 xGLecce 1.25 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Verona attacking right
Lecce attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Lecce |
Balthazar Pierret | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Lecce |
Tete Morente | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antonino Gallo |
| 15' |
Lecce |
Tete Morente | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Frederic Guilbert |
| 22' |
Lecce |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Tete Morente |
| 38' |
Lecce |
Tete Morente | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
 Verona |
Diego Coppola | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Tomás Suslov |
| 42' |
Lecce |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tete Morente |
| 45' |
Verona |
Daniele Ghilardi | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tomás Suslov |
| 48' |
Verona |
Suat Serdar | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Amin Sarr |
| 49' |
Verona |
Jackson Tchatchoua | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Casper Tengstedt |
| 52' |
Lecce |
Tete Morente | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Konan N’Dri |
| 56' |
Verona |
Diego Coppola | 0.30 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ondrej Duda |
| 59' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.61 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Santiago Pierotti |
| 62' |
Lecce |
Danilo Veiga | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lameck Banda |
| 77' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Daniele Ghilardi |
| 78' |
Lecce |
Medon Berisha | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antonino Gallo |
| 82' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nikola Krstovic |
Players
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Coppola DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jackson Tchatchoua MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Daniele Ghilardi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Ondrej Duda MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.02 |
| Martin Frese ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás Valentini DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amin Sarr FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Cheikh Niasse MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Casper Tengstedt FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Tomás Suslov AMC | 49 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.00 |
| Suat Serdar Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Daniel Mosquera Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Dailon Livramento Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antoine Bernede Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Flavius Daniliuc Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Krstovic FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.01 | 0.40 |
| Federico Baschirotto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| Lassana Coulibaly DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thórir Helgason AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Kialonda Gaspar DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Balthazar Pierret DMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Tete Morente AML | 58 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| Konan N’Dri AMR | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Frederic Guilbert DR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Danilo Veiga Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Lameck Banda Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.03 | 0.72 |
| Santiago Pierotti Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| Medon Berisha Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Tiago Gabriel Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |