Verona v Napoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 28 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 8
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
4 – 5
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.47
Goals − xG
+0.72 – +0.79
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Verona win
12.7%
Draw
22.5%
Napoli win
64.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Napoli are finishing below their chances — 3.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWWWLLWDWL last 10
scored 16
from 19.2 xG
conceded 10
from 10.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.67–1.83 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.80–1.46 | 0-1 15% | 39% | 42% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Verona 0.28 xGNapoli 1.21 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Verona attacking right
Napoli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Goal | Antonio Vergara |
| 9' |
Napoli |
Leonardo Spinazzola | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Eljif Elmas |
| 17' |
 Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Amin Sarr |
| 21' |
Verona |
Abdou Harroui | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amin Sarr |
| 22' |
Napoli |
Eljif Elmas | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Stanislav Lobotka |
| 36' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 40' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Daniel Oyegoke |
| 45' |
Verona |
Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Napoli |
Antonio Vergara | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alisson Santos |
| 63' |
Verona |
Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 71' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tomás Suslov |
| 79' |
Napoli |
Eljif Elmas | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romelu Lukaku |
| 85' |
Napoli |
Giovane | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Romelu Lukaku |
| 90' |
Verona |
Cheikh Niasse | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Verona |
Roberto Gagliardini | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Victor Nelsson |
| 95' |
Napoli |
Romelu Lukaku | 0.47 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieron Bowie FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Roberto Gagliardini MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Victor Nelsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Domagoj Bradaric DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Andrias Edmundsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro MC | 84 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Abdou Harroui MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Daniel Oyegoke DMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Amin Sarr FW | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Armel Bella Kotchap DC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Daniel Mosquera Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Martin Frese Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Tomás Suslov Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Cheikh Niasse Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tobias Slotsager Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Napoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Eljif Elmas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.54 |
| Alex Meret GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Alessandro Buongiorno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Juan Jesus DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Sam Beukema DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Antonio Vergara AMC | 80 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Matteo Politano DMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Alisson Santos AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Stanislav Lobotka MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Leonardo Spinazzola DML | 54 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| Miguel Gutiérrez Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Romelu Lukaku Sub | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Billy Gilmour Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Giovane Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Pasquale Mazzocchi Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |