Verona v Parma Calcio 1913 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 31 March 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 10
On target
0 – 1
Shots in box
5 – 5
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.36 – 0.16
Goals − xG
-0.77 – -0.50
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Verona win
31.3%
Draw
29.6%
Parma Calcio 1913 win
39.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDWWLLLWLL last 10
scored 7
from 7.5 xG
conceded 11
from 16.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.34–1.51 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Verona 0.77 xGParma Calcio 1913 0.50 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Verona attacking right
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Domagoj Bradaric |
| 0' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.25 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | — |
| 9' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Pontus Almqvist | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ange-Yoan Bonny |
| 16' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jackson Tchatchoua |
| 29' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Simon Sohm | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dennis Man |
| 33' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Pontus Almqvist | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 36' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Simon Sohm | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pontus Almqvist |
| 39' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ondrej Duda |
| 44' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dennis Man |
| 54' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mandela Keita |
| 65' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Jacob Ondrejka | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dennis Man |
| 87' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Emanuele Valeri | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dennis Man |
| 92' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Jacob Ondrejka | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Verona |
Casper Tengstedt | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Suat Serdar |
Players
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Sohm MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Emanuele Valeri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.24 |
| Enrico Del Prato DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Alessandro Vogliacco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Mandela Keita DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.23 |
| Zion Suzuki GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lautaro Valenti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Adrián Bernabé MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Dennis Man MR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| Pontus Almqvist ML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Jacob Ondrejka Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Mateo Pellegrino Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nahuel Estévez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Milan Djuric Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Drissa Camara Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ondrej Duda MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Nicolás Valentini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jackson Tchatchoua DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Diego Coppola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniele Ghilardi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amin Sarr FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Domagoj Bradaric DML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Pawel Dawidowicz MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Daniel Mosquera FW | 60 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Antoine Bernede MC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Grigoris Kastanos Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Casper Tengstedt Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Suat Serdar Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Dailon Livramento Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Daniel Oyegoke Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |