Verona v Pisa — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 6 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526

Serie A xG Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:04

Verona

0–0

0.08 – 1.26 xG

Pisa

Shots

3 – 11

On target

0 – 3

Shots in box

1 – 9

xG per shot

0.03 – 0.12

Set-piece xG

0.06 – 0.46

Goals − xG

-0.08 – -1.29

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Verona win

33.9%

Draw

28.2%

Pisa win

37.9%

342838

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLLLLDDLDL last 10 scored 3 from 7.7 xG conceded 12 from 15.9 xG

Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WLLLLLLLLL last 10 scored 6 from 11.2 xG conceded 23 from 15.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend-oos	342838	1.11–1.19	0%	0%	0%	Away ✗
dc-xg-oos	462529	1.52–1.16	1-1 12%	50%	54%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Verona 0.08 xGPisa 1.29 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Verona attacking right Pisa attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
6'	Pisa	Stefano Moreo	0.01	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Michel Aebischer
9'	Verona	Gift Orban	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Antoine Bernede
29'	Verona	Sandi Lovric	0.02	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
32'	Verona	Gift Orban	0.04	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Shot On Post	—
46'	Pisa	Idrissa Touré	0.06	Open Play	—	Blocked Shot	—
55'	Pisa	Filip Stojilkovic	0.11	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Stefano Moreo
68'	Pisa	Stefano Moreo	0.01	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Michel Aebischer
72'	Pisa	Idrissa Touré	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Mehdi Leris
80'	Pisa	Antonio Caracciolo	0.29	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Michel Aebischer
80'	Pisa	Idrissa Touré	0.09	From Corner	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Antonio Caracciolo
80'	Pisa	Stefano Moreo	0.05	From Corner	—	Shot On Post	Michel Aebischer
86'	Pisa	Henrik Meister	0.54	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
86'	Pisa	Michel Aebischer	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
90'	Pisa	Marius Marin	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—

Players

Verona

Player	Min	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Victor Nelsson DC	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.02
Andrias Edmundsson DC	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Kieron Bowie FW	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.02
Lorenzo Montipò GK	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Al Musrati MC	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.02
Tobias Slotsager DC	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Sandi Lovric MC	88	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.02
Gift Orban FW	85	2	0	0.06	0.00	0.02
Cheikh Niasse DMR	73	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Martin Frese DML	49	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Antoine Bernede MC	49	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.02
Domagoj Bradaric Sub	41	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Suat Serdar Sub	41	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Pol Lirola Sub	17	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Daniel Mosquera Sub	5	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Abdou Harroui Sub	2	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Pisa

Player	Min	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Antonio Caracciolo DC	90	1	1	0.29	0.09	0.00
Idrissa Touré DMR	90	3	0	0.23	0.00	0.14
Stefano Moreo AMC	90	3	1	0.08	0.11	0.11
Michel Aebischer MC	90	1	4	0.01	0.37	0.01
Samuele Angori DML	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Simone Scuffet GK	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Simone Canestrelli DC	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Felipe Loyola MC	78	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.11
Filip Stojilkovic AMC	72	1	0	0.11	0.00	0.11
Rosen Bozhinov DC	72	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Rafiu Durosinmi FW	49	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Mehdi Leris Sub	41	0	1	0.00	0.08	0.08
Henrik Meister Sub	18	1	0	0.54	0.00	0.54
Arturo Calabresi Sub	18	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Marius Marin Sub	12	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.57

Verona v Pisa — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

What the chances say

What the model said

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

Verona

Pisa

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