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VfB Stuttgart v Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated

VfB Stuttgart
4–0
2.95 – 0.87 xG
Wolfsburg
Shots
24 – 10
On target
10 – 3
Shots in box
19 – 6
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.17
Goals − xG
+1.03 – -0.87

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
VfB Stuttgart win
68.7%
Draw
18.8%
Wolfsburg win
12.5%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WLWLDDWDLW last 10 scored 25 from 23.3 xG conceded 21 from 22.0 xG

Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDLLLWDDLW last 10 scored 12 from 18.8 xG conceded 16 from 18.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend-oos 2.42–0.96 0% 0% 0% Home ✓
dc-xg-oos 2.55–1.17 2-1 9% 72% 63% Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.72.53.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Deniz Undav 20' — goalJamie Leweling 29' — goalJamie Leweling 41' — goalNikolas Nartey 94' — goal
VfB Stuttgart 2.97 xGWolfsburg 0.87 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Atakan Karazor 1' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Ermedin Demirovic 5' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Deniz Undav 10' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Atakan Karazor 14' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Chris Führich 14' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Pharell Hensel 14' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mohammed Amoura 16' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Ermedin Demirovic 19' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Deniz Undav 20' — Goal (0.52 xG, Open Play)Angelo Stiller 25' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jamie Leweling 29' — Goal (0.64 xG, Open Play)Ermedin Demirovic 32' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Set Piece)Yannick Gerhardt 35' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Deniz Undav 40' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jamie Leweling 41' — Goal (0.03 xG, Open Play)Bilal El Khannouss 43' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Bilal El Khannouss 45' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Lovro Majer 46' — Missed Shot (0.29 xG, Open Play)Jonas Adjetey 49' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Chris Führich 56' — Saved Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Deniz Undav 56' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Kento Shiogai 56' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Bilal El Khannouss 57' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Chris Führich 57' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Ermedin Demirovic 60' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Kento Shiogai 69' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Jesper Lindstrom 70' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Lorenz Assignon 78' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Ermedin Demirovic 82' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Nikolas Nartey 85' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Dzenan Pejcinovic 89' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Kento Shiogai 90' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Jeremy Arévalo 91' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Nikolas Nartey 94' — Goal (0.13 xG, Open Play)
VfB Stuttgart attacking right Wolfsburg attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' VfB Stuttgart Atakan Karazor 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jamie Leweling
5' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
10' VfB Stuttgart Deniz Undav 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Bilal El Khannouss
14' VfB Stuttgart Atakan Karazor 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
14' VfB Stuttgart Chris Führich 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jamie Leweling
14' Wolfsburg Pharell Hensel 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
16' Wolfsburg Mohammed Amoura 0.11 From Corner — Missed Shot —
19' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.13 Open Play — Missed Shot Chris Führich
20' VfB Stuttgart Deniz Undav 0.52 Open Play Right Foot Goal Ermedin Demirovic
25' VfB Stuttgart Angelo Stiller 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
29' VfB Stuttgart Jamie Leweling 0.64 Open Play Left Foot Goal Chris Führich
32' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.11 Set Piece — Missed Shot Bilal El Khannouss
35' Wolfsburg Yannick Gerhardt 0.07 Open Play — Missed Shot Sael Kumbedi
40' VfB Stuttgart Deniz Undav 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Ermedin Demirovic
41' VfB Stuttgart Jamie Leweling 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Goal —
43' VfB Stuttgart Bilal El Khannouss 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Ermedin Demirovic
45' VfB Stuttgart Bilal El Khannouss 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot —
46' Wolfsburg Lovro Majer 0.29 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Adam Daghim
49' Wolfsburg Jonas Adjetey 0.05 From Corner — Missed Shot Christian Eriksen
56' VfB Stuttgart Chris Führich 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ermedin Demirovic
56' VfB Stuttgart Deniz Undav 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
56' Wolfsburg Kento Shiogai 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Christian Eriksen
57' VfB Stuttgart Bilal El Khannouss 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Angelo Stiller
57' VfB Stuttgart Chris Führich 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Angelo Stiller
60' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Deniz Undav
69' Wolfsburg Kento Shiogai 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Yannick Gerhardt
70' Wolfsburg Jesper Lindstrom 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
78' VfB Stuttgart Lorenz Assignon 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Angelo Stiller
82' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Nikolas Nartey
85' VfB Stuttgart Nikolas Nartey 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Bilal El Khannouss
89' Wolfsburg Dzenan Pejcinovic 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Aaron Zehnter
90' Wolfsburg Kento Shiogai 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Dzenan Pejcinovic
91' VfB Stuttgart Jeremy Arévalo 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
94' VfB Stuttgart Nikolas Nartey 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Goal Tiago Tomás

Players

VfB Stuttgart

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Ermedin Demirovic FW 90 0 1 5 4 0.59 0.81 2.08
Chris Führich ML 90 0 1 3 2 0.20 0.77 1.82
Bilal El Khannouss AMC 90 0 0 3 3 0.20 0.31 0.76
Atakan Karazor MC 90 0 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.39
Angelo Stiller MC 90 0 0 1 3 0.04 0.17 1.15
Alexander Nübel GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ramon Hendriks DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.36
Finn Jeltsch DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.38
Deniz Undav FW 79 1 0 4 1 0.81 0.13 1.71
Jamie Leweling MR 79 2 0 2 2 0.67 0.10 1.01
Luca Jaquez DC 70 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.16
Ameen Al Dakhil Sub 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.13
Nikolas Nartey Sub 11 1 0 2 1 0.22 0.12 0.41
Lorenz Assignon Sub 11 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.18
Jeremy Arévalo Sub 1 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.17
Tiago Tomás Sub 1 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.13 0.13

Wolfsburg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Yannick Gerhardt DMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.07 0.22
Moritz Jenz DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.15
Christian Eriksen DMC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.10 0.19
Sael Kumbedi DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.07
Konstantinos Koulierakis DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Kamil Grabara GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Jeanuël Belocian DL 87 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Pharell Hensel AML 64 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Lovro Majer AMC 48 0 0 1 0 0.29 0.00 0.38
Mohammed Amoura FW 48 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.02
Adam Daghim AMR 48 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.29 0.36
Kento Shiogai Sub 42 0 0 3 0 0.22 0.00 0.24
Dzenan Pejcinovic Sub 42 0 0 1 1 0.08 0.11 0.19
Jonas Adjetey Sub 42 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.07
Jesper Lindstrom Sub 26 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.17
Aaron Zehnter Sub 3 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.08
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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