Werder Bremen v Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 7 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 7
On target
7 – 4
Shots in box
14 – 4
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.45 – 0.03
Goals − xG
+0.28 – +0.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Werder Bremen win
41.6%
Draw
24.9%
Wolfsburg win
33.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Werder Bremen have scored 16 from 14.5 expected and conceded 20 from 20.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLLLWDWDDW last 10
scored 16
from 14.5 xG
conceded 20
from 20.1 xG
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.62–1.44 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.01–1.53 | 2-1 9% | 69% | 68% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Werder Bremen 1.72 xGWolfsburg 0.68 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Werder Bremen attacking right
Wolfsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Werder Bremen |
Amos Pieper | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 9' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yukinari Sugawara |
| 12' |
 Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aaron Zehnter |
| 16' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
Wolfsburg |
Mattias Svanberg | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Aaron Zehnter |
| 27' |
Wolfsburg |
Mattias Svanberg | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sael Kumbedi |
| 32' |
Werder Bremen |
Yukinari Sugawara | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 36' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aaron Zehnter |
| 37' |
Wolfsburg |
Maximilian Arnold | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 39' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 41' |
Wolfsburg |
Mattias Svanberg | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Sael Kumbedi |
| 45' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Justin Njinmah |
| 49' |
Werder Bremen |
Amos Pieper | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Justin Njinmah |
| 50' |
Werder Bremen |
Amos Pieper | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 57' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jens Stage |
| 63' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Senne Lynen |
| 68' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
Werder Bremen |
Victor Boniface | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yukinari Sugawara |
| 70' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yukinari Sugawara |
| 72' |
Werder Bremen |
Victor Boniface | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marco Grüll |
| 78' |
Werder Bremen |
Victor Boniface | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 82' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Goal | Yukinari Sugawara |
| 84' |
Werder Bremen |
Yukinari Sugawara | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Werder Bremen |
Victor Boniface | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Samuel Mbangula |
| 90' |
Werder Bremen |
Yukinari Sugawara | 0.22 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 93' |
Werder Bremen |
Samuel Mbangula | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Victor Boniface |
| 93' |
Werder Bremen |
Victor Boniface | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yukinari Sugawara |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jens Stage DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.02 | 0.48 |
| Yukinari Sugawara DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0.26 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| Amos Pieper DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Romano Schmid AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.11 | 0.38 | 0.55 |
| Marco Friedl DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Mio Backhaus GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Marco Grüll AML | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.64 |
| Senne Lynen DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.55 |
| Karim Coulibaly DC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Justin Njinmah AMR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Keke Maximilian Topp FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Samuel Mbangula Sub | 23 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.05 | 0.42 |
| Victor Boniface Sub | 22 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.34 | 0.55 |
| Isaac Schmidt Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Leonardo Bittencourt Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cameron Puertas Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximilian Arnold DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Sael Kumbedi DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Jenson Seelt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Aaron Zehnter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| Vinicius Souza DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Christian Eriksen AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.58 |
| Adam Daghim AMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Mohammed Amoura FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mattias Svanberg AML | 69 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Patrick Wimmer Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonas Wind Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andreas Skov Olsen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |