Wolfsburg v Augsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 15
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
6 – 10
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
1.11 – 0.89
Goals − xG
-0.20 – +1.44
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolfsburg win
44.5%
Draw
28.6%
Augsburg win
26.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Augsburg are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLWWDLDL last 10
scored 23
from 23.0 xG
conceded 19
from 22.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.52–1.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.83–1.22 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolfsburg 2.20 xGAugsburg 1.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolfsburg attacking right
Augsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Wolfsburg |
Denis Vavro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kamil Grabara |
| 4' |
 Augsburg |
Rodrigo Ribeiro | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Han-Noah Massengo |
| 9' |
Augsburg |
Han-Noah Massengo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Robin Fellhauer |
| 9' |
Augsburg |
Kristijan Jakic | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Han-Noah Massengo |
| 23' |
Augsburg |
Noahkai Banks | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 27' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 29' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Keven Schlotterbeck |
| 34' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Daghim |
| 35' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 38' |
Wolfsburg |
Denis Vavro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 40' |
Wolfsburg |
Yannick Gerhardt | 0.49 | From Corner | — | Goal | Christian Eriksen |
| 44' |
Augsburg |
Kristijan Jakic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 55' |
Wolfsburg |
Denis Vavro | 0.61 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Lovro Majer |
| 56' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rodrigo Ribeiro |
| 58' |
Augsburg |
Rodrigo Ribeiro | 0.21 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 67' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Keven Schlotterbeck |
| 68' |
Augsburg |
Marius Wolf | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Wolfsburg |
Kento Shiogai | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mohammed Amoura |
| 79' |
Augsburg |
Rodrigo Ribeiro | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Cédric Zesiger |
| 82' |
Wolfsburg |
Jeanuël Belocian | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Wolfsburg |
Kento Shiogai | 0.26 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dzenan Pejcinovic |
| 86' |
Augsburg |
Michael Gregoritsch | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 92' |
Augsburg |
Elvis Rexhbecaj | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 95' |
Wolfsburg |
Jonas Adjetey | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Claude Maurice AMC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| Kristijan Jakic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Noahkai Banks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Cédric Zesiger DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.30 |
| Keven Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Rodrigo Ribeiro FW | 84 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.03 | 0.38 |
| Robin Fellhauer DMR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis DML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| Han-Noah Massengo MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| Mert Kömür AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Fabian Rieder Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Marius Wolf Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michael Gregoritsch Sub | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Uchenna Ogundu Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denis Vavro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Yannick Gerhardt DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jeanuël Belocian DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Christian Eriksen DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.62 | 0.40 |
| Sael Kumbedi DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Adam Daghim AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.97 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Mohammed Amoura FW | 85 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Lovro Majer AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.61 | 0.09 |
| Mattias Svanberg AML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kento Shiogai Sub | 22 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Kevin Paredes Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Jonas Adjetey Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jan Bürger Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |