Wolfsburg v Bochum — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 February 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 11
On target
6 – 5
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
1.76 – 0.55
Goals − xG
-1.77 – -0.48
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolfsburg win
66.4%
Draw
21.2%
Bochum win
12.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Bochum are finishing below their chances — 2.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLLLLLDDLW last 10
scored 10
from 12.5 xG
conceded 20
from 18.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.35–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolfsburg 2.77 xGBochum 1.48 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolfsburg attacking right
Bochum attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.10 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Mattias Svanberg |
| 10' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' |
 Bochum |
Giorgos Masouras | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' |
Bochum |
Philipp Hofmann | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bernardo |
| 20' |
Wolfsburg |
Tiago Tomás | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 26' |
Bochum |
Giorgos Masouras | 0.25 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Gerrit Holtmann |
| 26' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Bochum |
Philipp Hofmann | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Bochum |
Bernardo | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Matús Bero |
| 41' |
Bochum |
Matús Bero | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Philipp Hofmann |
| 46' |
Bochum |
Giorgos Masouras | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tom Krauß |
| 49' |
Bochum |
Erhan Masovic | 0.38 | From Corner | — | Goal | Matús Bero |
| 52' |
Bochum |
Philipp Hofmann | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Giorgos Masouras |
| 53' |
Wolfsburg |
Mattias Svanberg | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Wolfsburg |
Tiago Tomás | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Patrick Wimmer |
| 60' |
Bochum |
Matús Bero | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gerrit Holtmann |
| 66' |
Bochum |
Matús Bero | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tom Krauß |
| 78' |
Wolfsburg |
Joakim Maehle | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 80' |
Wolfsburg |
Jonas Wind | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Konstantinos Koulierakis |
| 80' |
Wolfsburg |
Mattias Svanberg | 0.80 | From Corner | — | Goal | Sebastiaan Bornauw |
| 80' |
Wolfsburg |
Sebastiaan Bornauw | 0.73 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Andreas Skov Olsen |
| 82' |
Wolfsburg |
Andreas Skov Olsen | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bence Dárdai |
| 82' |
Wolfsburg |
Yannick Gerhardt | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andreas Skov Olsen |
| 93' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.13 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Mattias Svanberg |
Players
Bochum
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giorgos Masouras FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.09 | 0.70 |
| Erhan Masovic DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Matús Bero MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.47 | 0.19 |
| Bernardo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Timo Horn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ivan Ordets DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibrahima Sissoko MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Tom Krauß MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.45 |
| Tim Oermann DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Philipp Hofmann FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.02 | 0.32 |
| Gerrit Holtmann DML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| Maximilian Wittek Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Moritz Broschinski Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Losilla Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cristian Gamboa Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattias Svanberg MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.84 | 0.23 | 0.11 |
| Mohammed Amoura FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.07 | 0.60 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Joakim Maehle DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Jonas Wind FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Denis Vavro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Marius Müller GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Patrick Wimmer ML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| Aster Vranckx MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Tiago Tomás MR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Mads Roerslev DR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw Sub | 31 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.73 | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| Andreas Skov Olsen Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 1.01 | 0.38 |
| Bence Dárdai Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Yannick Gerhardt Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Lukas Nmecha Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |