Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 21
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 14
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.48 – 0.34
Goals − xG
-1.03 – +0.27
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolfsburg win
20.0%
Draw
24.4%
Borussia Dortmund win
55.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLWLWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 22.3 xG
conceded 10
from 12.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.11–1.95 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.09–2.00 | 1-1 10% | 60% | 57% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolfsburg 2.03 xGBorussia Dortmund 1.73 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolfsburg attacking right
Borussia Dortmund attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 6' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Beier |
| 11' |
Wolfsburg |
Jeanuël Belocian | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 13' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Niklas Süle | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Waldemar Anton |
| 14' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nico Schlotterbeck |
| 22' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 22' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Felix Nmecha |
| 23' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Daghim |
| 24' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Daghim |
| 26' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Jobe Bellingham | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 29' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Ryerson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Svensson |
| 31' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 37' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Brandt | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Goal | Julian Ryerson |
| 41' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Daniel Svensson |
| 42' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Waldemar Anton |
| 42' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Ryerson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Nico Schlotterbeck | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Nico Schlotterbeck | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Waldemar Anton | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Daniel Svensson |
| 45' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Nico Schlotterbeck | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Waldemar Anton |
| 46' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Jobe Bellingham | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Julian Brandt |
| 51' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.48 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Maximilian Arnold |
| 53' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Daghim |
| 59' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nico Schlotterbeck |
| 59' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Nico Schlotterbeck | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Felix Nmecha |
| 61' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kevin Paredes |
| 64' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Daghim |
| 66' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 70' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adam Daghim |
| 79' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Jeanuël Belocian |
| 86' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Fabio Silva |
| 90' |
Wolfsburg |
Maximilian Arnold | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesper Lindstrom |
Players
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serhou Guirassy FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Nico Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.15 | 0.94 |
| Felix Nmecha MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.17 | 0.78 |
| Maximilian Beier AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.14 | 0.49 |
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.42 |
| Julian Brandt AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.78 |
| Jobe Bellingham MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Niklas Süle DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Daniel Svensson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.37 |
| Julian Ryerson DMR | 72 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 0.49 |
| Fabio Silva Sub | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| Salih Özcan Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ramy Bensebaini Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carney Chukwuemeka Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Reggiani Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Maximilian Arnold DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| Jeanuël Belocian DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.51 |
| Christian Eriksen DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Denis Vavro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohammed Amoura FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1.47 | 0.00 | 1.47 |
| Adam Daghim AMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 1.35 | 1.37 |
| Jan Bürger Sub | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Kento Shiogai AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Kevin Paredes AML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.48 |
| Lovro Majer Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Jesper Lindstrom Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Kilian Fischer DR | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Mattias Svanberg Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |