Wolfsburg v Borussia M.Gladbach — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 25 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 10
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.61 – -0.48
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolfsburg win
38.3%
Draw
24.0%
Borussia M.Gladbach win
37.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Borussia M.Gladbach are conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLDDWLWLL last 10
scored 15
from 14.1 xG
conceded 17
from 20.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.53–1.52 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.67–1.37 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 61% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolfsburg 1.61 xGBorussia M.Gladbach 0.48 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolfsburg attacking right
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Stöger | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Haris Tabakovic |
| 6' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jens Castrop |
| 14' |
 Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dzenan Pejcinovic |
| 18' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Jens Castrop | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Joe Scally | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 28' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fabio Chiarodia |
| 34' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Joe Scally | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kevin Stöger |
| 38' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 40' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Wolfsburg |
Joakim Maehle | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Patrick Wimmer |
| 43' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Wolfsburg |
Aaron Zehnter | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 55' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 60' |
Wolfsburg |
Joakim Maehle | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dzenan Pejcinovic |
| 75' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 78' |
Wolfsburg |
Sael Kumbedi | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Konstantinos Koulierakis |
| 84' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Giovanni Reyna | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Robin Hack |
| 86' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sael Kumbedi |
| 87' |
Wolfsburg |
Vinicius Souza | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joakim Maehle |
| 93' |
Wolfsburg |
Vinicius Souza | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haris Tabakovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.04 | 0.30 |
| Joe Scally MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Jens Castrop ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Rocco Reitz MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Fabio Chiarodia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| Yannick Engelhardt DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Philipp Sander DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Moritz Nicolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Kevin Stöger MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| Franck Honorat FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Giovanni Reyna Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Robin Hack Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Kota Takai Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shuto Machino Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dzenan Pejcinovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.48 | 0.11 | 0.70 |
| Joakim Maehle MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Vinicius Souza DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.29 | 0.80 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Jeanuël Belocian DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Denis Vavro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Christian Eriksen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.88 | 1.22 |
| Patrick Wimmer MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.54 |
| Aaron Zehnter ML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Mohammed Amoura FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Sael Kumbedi Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.14 | 0.43 |
| Adam Daghim Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Kevin Paredes Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |