Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 11 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 10
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
13 – 6
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.17 – 0.89
Goals − xG
-1.26 – +0.46
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolfsburg win
24.9%
Draw
21.3%
Eintracht Frankfurt win
53.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 16 from 17.9 expected and conceded 24 from 22.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLWDLW last 10
scored 16
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 22.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.54–2.29 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.56–1.58 | 1-1 11% | 61% | 63% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolfsburg 2.26 xGEintracht Frankfurt 1.54 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolfsburg attacking right
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 11' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Oscar Højlund |
| 11' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 20' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Oscar Højlund | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab |
| 28' |
Wolfsburg |
Denis Vavro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 31' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.54 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 31' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.28 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
| 39' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Larsson |
| 46' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 48' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 48' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Wolfsburg |
Joakim Maehle | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vinicius Souza |
| 54' |
Wolfsburg |
Aaron Zehnter | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lovro Majer |
| 55' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 60' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Patrick Wimmer |
| 60' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 65' |
Wolfsburg |
Denis Vavro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 67' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arthur Theate | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 74' |
Wolfsburg |
Joakim Maehle | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Denis Vavro |
| 75' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga |
| 76' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Wolfsburg |
Maximilian Arnold | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 81' |
Wolfsburg |
Joakim Maehle | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 88' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lovro Majer |
| 89' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ellyes Skhiri | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga |
| 89' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ellyes Skhiri | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Wolfsburg |
Kento Shiogai | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joakim Maehle |
| 96' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.37 | Open Play | — | Goal | Adam Daghim |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga FWL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.88 | 0.17 | 0.47 |
| Arthur Theate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Aurèle Amenda DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Nathaniel Brown DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.36 |
| Michael Zetterer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Hugo Larsson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.43 |
| Jonathan Burkardt FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Farès Chaïbi FWR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.28 | 0.10 |
| Oscar Højlund MC | 86 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab DMR | 72 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Ansgar Knauff Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ellyes Skhiri Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Younes Ebnoutalib Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Can Uzun Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Love Arrhov Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Amoura AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.15 | 1.39 |
| Joakim Maehle DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.70 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Jeanuël Belocian DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Vinicius Souza MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.46 |
| Aaron Zehnter DML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Denis Vavro DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.29 |
| Patrick Wimmer FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.07 | 0.36 |
| Christian Eriksen MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.06 | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| Jesper Lindstrom AMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lovro Majer Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.40 | 0.73 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic Sub | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Maximilian Arnold Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.43 |
| Kento Shiogai Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Adam Daghim Sub | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.37 |