Wolfsburg v FC Cologne — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 13 September 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 14
On target
6 – 8
Shots in box
9 – 10
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.69 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+1.20 – +1.23
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolfsburg win
36.9%
Draw
25.2%
FC Cologne win
37.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.8 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLWLDLWLD last 10
scored 12
from 16.8 xG
conceded 21
from 17.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.40–1.42 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 57% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolfsburg 1.80 xGFC Cologne 1.77 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolfsburg attacking right
FC Cologne attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 FC Cologne |
Kristoffer Lund | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 4' |
FC Cologne |
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt | 0.68 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 4' |
FC Cologne |
Jan Thielmann | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marius Bülter |
| 14' |
FC Cologne |
Sebastian Sebulonsen | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joël Schmied |
| 17' |
FC Cologne |
Jan Thielmann | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gian-Luca Waldschmidt |
| 18' |
 Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
FC Cologne |
Kristoffer Lund | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
Wolfsburg |
Joakim Maehle | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 41' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.48 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Maximilian Arnold |
| 43' |
Wolfsburg |
Andreas Skov Olsen | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 44' |
FC Cologne |
Jan Thielmann | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gian-Luca Waldschmidt |
| 45' |
Wolfsburg |
Andreas Skov Olsen | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Wolfsburg |
Joakim Maehle | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lovro Majer |
| 51' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 53' |
FC Cologne |
Jan Thielmann | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Eric Martel |
| 62' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kilian Fischer |
| 64' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Joakim Maehle |
| 73' |
Wolfsburg |
Andreas Skov Olsen | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 75' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andreas Skov Olsen |
| 81' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Kainz |
| 83' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 90' |
FC Cologne |
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Said El Mala |
| 91' |
Wolfsburg |
Joakim Maehle | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 98' |
Wolfsburg |
Maximilian Arnold | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 100' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Said El Mala |
| 103' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ragnar Ache |
| 105' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alessio Castro-Montes |
Players
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joakim Maehle DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.62 | 1.00 |
| Andreas Skov Olsen AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.95 |
| Maximilian Arnold DMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.06 | 0.72 | 0.30 |
| Vinicius Souza DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Kilian Fischer DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.96 |
| Patrick Wimmer AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Lovro Majer AMC | 87 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.10 | 0.74 |
| Mohammed Amoura FW | 72 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.03 | 0.86 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jenson Seelt Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jesper Lindstrom Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Daghim Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Kaminski MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Marius Bülter FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.33 |
| Eric Martel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Joël Schmied DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| Timo Hübers DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Kristoffer Lund DL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Rav van den Berg DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jan Thielmann MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Sebastian Sebulonsen DR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Gian-Luca Waldschmidt FW | 48 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.16 | 0.84 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson Sub | 42 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Said El Mala Sub | 24 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| Alessio Castro-Montes Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.66 |
| Florian Kainz Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| Ragnar Ache Sub | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |