Wolfsburg v FC Heidenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 13
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.55 – 0.54
Goals − xG
-0.08 – +0.00
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolfsburg win
57.0%
Draw
24.4%
FC Heidenheim win
18.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.94–1.04 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.07–1.21 | 2-1 10% | 64% | 61% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolfsburg 1.08 xGFC Heidenheim 1.00 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolfsburg attacking right
FC Heidenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18' |
 Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Patrick Wimmer |
| 19' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Marnon Busch | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 20' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 23' |
Wolfsburg |
Yannick Gerhardt | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
FC Heidenheim |
Jan Schöppner | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 30' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marnon Busch |
| 41' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jan Bürger |
| 45' |
FC Heidenheim |
Adrian Beck | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 45' |
FC Heidenheim |
Jan Schöppner | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marvin Pieringer |
| 45' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 59' |
FC Heidenheim |
Adrian Beck | 0.38 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Niklas Dorsch |
| 60' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 72' |
Wolfsburg |
Maximilian Arnold | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 73' |
Wolfsburg |
Moritz Jenz | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 79' |
Wolfsburg |
Moritz Jenz | 0.40 | From Corner | — | Goal | Christian Eriksen |
| 80' |
Wolfsburg |
Kevin Paredes | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 82' |
FC Heidenheim |
Stefan Schimmer | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Patrick Mainka |
| 82' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 83' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Wolfsburg |
Jesper Lindstrom | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sael Kumbedi |
| 87' |
FC Heidenheim |
Benedikt Gimber | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mikkel Kaufmann | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Patrick Mainka |
| 91' |
Wolfsburg |
Jesper Lindstrom | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 93' |
FC Heidenheim |
Jan Schöppner | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 93' |
FC Heidenheim |
Luca Kerber | 0.14 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
Players
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Schöppner DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Benedikt Gimber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Mathias Honsak AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Marnon Busch DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| Arijon Ibrahimovic AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| Diant Ramaj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marvin Pieringer FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Niklas Dorsch DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.09 |
| Adrian Beck AMC | 78 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jonas Föhrenbach DL | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Stefan Schimmer Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Leonidas Stergiou Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Luca Kerber Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mikkel Kaufmann Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Omar Traoré Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Mohammed Amoura FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| Maximilian Arnold DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Patrick Wimmer AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Christian Eriksen AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 0.31 |
| Yannick Gerhardt DMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lovro Majer AMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jan Bürger DR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| Aaron Zehnter DL | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Kevin Paredes Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Adam Daghim Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Sael Kumbedi Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Jesper Lindstrom Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.22 |