Wolfsburg v Freiburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 26 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 15
On target
1 – 2
Shots in box
3 – 9
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.20
Goals − xG
-0.29 – -0.96
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolfsburg win
40.6%
Draw
26.7%
Freiburg win
32.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Freiburg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.0 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LDLWWWWDWL last 10
scored 22
from 16.0 xG
conceded 15
from 14.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.49–1.31 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolfsburg 0.29 xGFreiburg 1.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolfsburg attacking right
Freiburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jonas Wind |
| 9' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joakim Maehle |
| 13' |
 Freiburg |
Lucas Höler | 0.45 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Max Rosenfelder |
| 14' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joakim Maehle |
| 16' |
Wolfsburg |
Denis Vavro | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 17' |
Wolfsburg |
Jonas Wind | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Freiburg |
Junior Adamu | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Patrick Osterhage |
| 20' |
Freiburg |
Patrick Osterhage | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Höler |
| 20' |
Freiburg |
Ritsu Doan | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
Freiburg |
Junior Adamu | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ritsu Doan |
| 28' |
Freiburg |
Lucas Höler | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ritsu Doan |
| 35' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Höler |
| 42' |
Freiburg |
Matthias Ginter | 0.73 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Freiburg |
Max Rosenfelder | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 50' |
Wolfsburg |
Denis Vavro | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Patrick Wimmer |
| 72' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Johan Manzambi |
| 81' |
Freiburg |
Jan-Niklas Beste | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Patrick Osterhage |
| 85' |
Freiburg |
Michael Gregoritsch | 0.12 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Maximilian Eggestein MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Patrick Osterhage MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.70 |
| Philipp Lienhart DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jordy Makengo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Florian Müller GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ritsu Doan MR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.80 |
| Lucas Höler AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.10 | 0.68 |
| Vincenzo Grifo ML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Max Rosenfelder DR | 73 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.45 | 0.59 |
| Junior Adamu FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Michael Gregoritsch Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Lukas Kübler Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Johan Manzambi Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Kiliann Sildillia Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denis Vavro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joakim Maehle DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kilian Fischer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrick Wimmer MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Jonas Wind FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| Bence Dárdai MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Paredes DMR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohammed Amoura FW | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Yannick Gerhardt Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jakub Kaminski Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maximilian Arnold MC | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| Lovro Majer Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lukas Nmecha Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tiago Tomás Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |