Wolfsburg v Freiburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 20 December 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 15
On target
6 – 7
Shots in box
9 – 12
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.10 – 1.22
Goals − xG
+1.69 – +1.06
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolfsburg win
38.3%
Draw
25.8%
Freiburg win
35.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Freiburg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.0 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LDLWWWWDWL last 10
scored 22
from 16.0 xG
conceded 15
from 14.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.49–1.44 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–1.56 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 58% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolfsburg 1.31 xGFreiburg 2.94 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolfsburg attacking right
Freiburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Freiburg |
Philipp Treu | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 5' |
 Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Patrick Wimmer |
| 14' |
Wolfsburg |
Yannick Gerhardt | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aaron Zehnter |
| 16' |
Wolfsburg |
Sael Kumbedi | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 19' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sael Kumbedi |
| 26' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Lucas Höler |
| 32' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Höler |
| 48' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 49' |
Freiburg |
Philipp Treu | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Noah Atubolu |
| 49' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.93 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Freiburg |
Christian Günter | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 52' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.12 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 60' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 68' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Patrick Wimmer |
| 70' |
Freiburg |
Matthias Ginter | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Anthony Jung |
| 70' |
Wolfsburg |
Jenson Seelt | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 77' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Johan Manzambi |
| 77' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Johan Manzambi |
| 80' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.20 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Freiburg |
Nicolas Höfler | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Junior Adamu |
| 89' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Eggestein |
| 92' |
Wolfsburg |
Jan Bürger | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jesper Lindstrom |
| 92' |
Wolfsburg |
Jesper Lindstrom | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 93' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jan Bürger |
| 93' |
Wolfsburg |
Mattias Svanberg | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 96' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.10 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Aaron Zehnter |
Players
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuito Suzuki AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 1.36 |
| Maximilian Eggestein DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Christian Günter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Anthony Jung DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| Lukas Kübler DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johan Manzambi AML | 85 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| Lucas Höler FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Philipp Treu AMR | 73 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Patrick Osterhage DMC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vincenzo Grifo Sub | 38 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Derry Scherhant Sub | 17 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Nicolas Höfler Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Junior Adamu Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Igor Matanovic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dzenan Pejcinovic FW | 90 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Yannick Gerhardt DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Sael Kumbedi DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.13 |
| Maximilian Arnold DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jenson Seelt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Aaron Zehnter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Patrick Wimmer AML | 86 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| Christian Eriksen AMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.48 |
| Lovro Majer AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mattias Svanberg Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jesper Lindstrom Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Adam Daghim Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan Bürger Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.08 |