Wolfsburg v Hamburger SV — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 10
On target
4 – 7
Shots in box
10 – 4
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
1.43 – 1.62
Goals − xG
-1.52 – +0.20
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolfsburg win
36.9%
Draw
27.3%
Hamburger SV win
35.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Hamburger SV have scored 13 from 12.9 expected and conceded 21 from 19.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWDLLLWWW last 10
scored 13
from 12.9 xG
conceded 21
from 19.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.43–1.40 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.62–1.33 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolfsburg 2.52 xGHamburger SV 1.80 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolfsburg attacking right
Hamburger SV attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 13' |
Wolfsburg |
Jesper Lindstrom | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Wolfsburg |
Jan Bürger | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 21' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 32' |
 Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 34' |
Hamburger SV |
Jean-Luc Dompe | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Hamburger SV |
Jean-Luc Dompe | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Philip Otele |
| 44' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 46' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 48' |
Hamburger SV |
Jean-Luc Dompe | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Hamburger SV |
Philip Otele | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jean-Luc Dompe |
| 50' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 55' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 57' |
Hamburger SV |
Jean-Luc Dompe | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 62' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 63' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.41 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | — |
| 84' |
Wolfsburg |
Kento Shiogai | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Konstantinos Koulierakis |
| 88' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Warmed Omari |
| 89' |
Hamburger SV |
Jordan Torunarigha | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 89' |
Hamburger SV |
Jordan Torunarigha | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Konstantinos Koulierakis |
| 94' |
Wolfsburg |
Jonas Adjetey | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 96' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Eriksen AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.78 | 0.29 | 0.49 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| Jonas Adjetey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Vinicius Souza MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeanuël Belocian DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jesper Lindstrom AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Jan Bürger DMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Yannick Gerhardt MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Daghim Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mohammed Amoura Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Lovro Majer Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kento Shiogai Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Maximilian Arnold Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Torunarigha DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Miro Muheim DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| William Mikelbrencis DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jean-Luc Dompe AMC | 73 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.83 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Philip Otele AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Daniel Elfadli DC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Warmed Omari Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Fábio Vieira Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Yussuf Poulsen Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Damion Downs Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgi Gocholeishvili Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |