Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 9 May 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 18
On target
5 – 7
Shots in box
8 – 12
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.68 – 0.30
Goals − xG
+0.63 – +0.89
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolfsburg win
46.4%
Draw
26.3%
Hoffenheim win
27.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DWLLLWLLWW last 10
scored 18
from 20.7 xG
conceded 21
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.59–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolfsburg 1.37 xGHoffenheim 1.11 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolfsburg attacking right
Hoffenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Hoffenheim |
Leo Østigard | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 4' |
Hoffenheim |
Anton Stach | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 6' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Anton Stach |
| 8' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 10' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marius Bülter |
| 11' |
Hoffenheim |
Adam Hlozek | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Tom Bischof |
| 15' |
 Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Patrick Wimmer |
| 15' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jonas Wind |
| 16' |
Wolfsburg |
Yannick Gerhardt | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Joakim Maehle |
| 32' |
Hoffenheim |
Tom Bischof | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 33' |
Hoffenheim |
Pavel Kaderábek | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marius Bülter |
| 36' |
Hoffenheim |
Pavel Kaderábek | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tom Bischof |
| 36' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 39' |
Hoffenheim |
Marius Bülter | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Hlozek |
| 44' |
Wolfsburg |
Joakim Maehle | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yannick Gerhardt |
| 48' |
Hoffenheim |
Anton Stach | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 48' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Anton Stach |
| 48' |
Hoffenheim |
Tom Bischof | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joakim Maehle |
| 52' |
Wolfsburg |
Jonas Wind | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Kilian Fischer |
| 52' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 57' |
Hoffenheim |
Adam Hlozek | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anton Stach |
| 64' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andreas Skov Olsen |
| 69' |
Hoffenheim |
Anton Stach | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Hoffenheim |
Pavel Kaderábek | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adam Hlozek |
| 72' |
Hoffenheim |
Marius Bülter | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Haris Tabakovic |
| 80' |
Wolfsburg |
Jonas Wind | 0.57 | From Corner | — | Goal | Lovro Majer |
| 82' |
Wolfsburg |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andreas Skov Olsen |
| 83' |
Hoffenheim |
Marius Bülter | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Adam Hlozek |
| 92' |
Wolfsburg |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Joakim Maehle |
| 92' |
Wolfsburg |
Tiago Tomás | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lovro Majer |
| 93' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Joakim Maehle |
Players
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Stach DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.16 | 0.59 |
| Marius Bülter ML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.09 | 0.35 |
| Pavel Kaderábek MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Adam Hlozek FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| Andrej Kramaric MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kevin Akpoguma DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Arthur Chaves DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Tom Bischof MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| Bazoumana Touré FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Haris Tabakovic Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Finn Becker Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dennis Geiger Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Wind FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.67 | 0.04 | 0.26 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Mohammed Amoura FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Yannick Gerhardt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Joakim Maehle DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| Denis Vavro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Patrick Wimmer MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.31 |
| Kilian Fischer DC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Jakub Kaminski DMR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Aster Vranckx MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lovro Majer Sub | 43 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.61 | 0.41 |
| Andreas Skov Olsen Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Mads Roerslev Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lukas Nmecha Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Tiago Tomás Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.16 |