Wolfsburg v Mainz 05 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 31 August 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 17
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 14
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 1.20
Goals − xG
+0.38 – -0.83
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolfsburg win
30.9%
Draw
28.5%
Mainz 05 win
40.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLWLWD last 10
scored 15
from 22.2 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.21–1.42 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.82–1.61 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 67% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolfsburg 0.62 xGMainz 05 1.83 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolfsburg attacking right
Mainz 05 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Mainz 05 |
Arnaud Nordin | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
 Wolfsburg |
Aaron Zehnter | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lovro Majer |
| 11' |
Mainz 05 |
Kaishu Sano | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nelson Weiper |
| 19' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 20' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Mainz 05 |
Dominik Kohr | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 24' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kaishu Sano |
| 26' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Aaron Zehnter |
| 27' |
Wolfsburg |
Aaron Zehnter | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Mainz 05 |
Arnaud Nordin | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Mainz 05 |
Anthony Caci | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 48' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lovro Majer |
| 49' |
Wolfsburg |
Václav Cerny | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lovro Majer |
| 50' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 65' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 65' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lovro Majer |
| 66' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Philipp Mwene |
| 67' |
Mainz 05 |
Andreas Hanche-Olsen | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 67' |
Mainz 05 |
Anthony Caci | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Armindo Sieb |
| 74' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 75' |
Wolfsburg |
Mattias Svanberg | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 78' |
Mainz 05 |
Dominik Kohr | 0.14 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Nadiem Amiri |
| 78' |
Mainz 05 |
Kaishu Sano | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Mainz 05 |
Armindo Sieb | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 88' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 93' |
Mainz 05 |
Armindo Sieb | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Jae-Sung Lee |
Players
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nadiem Amiri MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0.79 | 0.33 | 0.49 |
| Dominik Kohr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Jae-Sung Lee AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.47 |
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Anthony Caci DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.25 |
| Danny da Costa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Robin Zentner GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Arnaud Nordin AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Philipp Mwene DML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Nelson Weiper FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Stefan Bell DC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Andreas Hanche-Olsen Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Armindo Sieb Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.01 | 0.35 |
| Nikolas Veratschnig Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Bobzien Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Patrick Wimmer AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Aaron Zehnter DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.35 |
| Vinicius Souza DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Kilian Fischer DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Maximilian Arnold DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Lovro Majer AMC | 75 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.06 | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| Andreas Skov Olsen AMR | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Václav Cerny Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Mattias Svanberg Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mohammed Amoura Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Jonas Wind Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joakim Maehle Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |