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Wolfsburg v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated

Wolfsburg
2–3
1.84 – 1.60 xG
RasenBallsport Leipzig
Shots
17 – 16
On target
6 – 5
Shots in box
16 – 7
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.21 – 0.05
Goals − xG
+0.13 – +1.40

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Wolfsburg win
35.4%
Draw
26.5%
RasenBallsport Leipzig win
38.1%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDLLLWDDLW last 10 scored 12 from 18.8 xG conceded 16 from 18.2 xG

RasenBallsport Leipzig are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WWWWWLWLWL last 10 scored 22 from 24.3 xG conceded 15 from 15.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend-oos 1.39–1.45 0% 0% 0% Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.01.62.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Loïs Openda 10' — goalXavi Simons 25' — goalXavi Simons 48' — goalKilian Fischer 57' — goalAndreas Skov Olsen 74' — goal
Wolfsburg 1.87 xGRasenBallsport Leipzig 1.60 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Xavi Simons 1' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Benjamin Sesko 3' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Jonas Wind 6' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Bote Baku 9' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Loïs Openda 10' — Goal (0.02 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Seiwald 19' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Bence Dárdai 21' — Shot On Post (0.06 xG, Open Play)Bence Dárdai 21' — Missed Shot (0.40 xG, Open Play)Xavi Simons 25' — Goal (0.08 xG, Open Play)Jakub Kaminski 27' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Bence Dárdai 34' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Patrick Wimmer 36' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Jakub Kaminski 37' — Shot On Post (0.11 xG, Open Play)Bote Baku 45' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Kosta Nedeljkovic 45' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Loïs Openda 46' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Xavi Simons 48' — Goal (0.04 xG, Open Play)Yannick Gerhardt 52' — Saved Shot (0.24 xG, Open Play)David Odogu 54' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Kilian Fischer 57' — Goal (0.02 xG, Open Play)Benjamin Sesko 60' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Mohammed Amoura 64' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Benjamin Sesko 65' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Mohammed Amoura 67' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Mohammed Amoura 69' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Jonas Wind 72' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Andreas Skov Olsen 74' — Goal (0.25 xG, Open Play)Yannick Gerhardt 81' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Christoph Baumgartner 85' — Missed Shot (0.25 xG, Open Play)Christoph Baumgartner 87' — Saved Shot (0.58 xG, Open Play)Benjamin Sesko 88' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Benjamin Sesko 91' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Lukas Nmecha 92' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)
Wolfsburg attacking right RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' RasenBallsport Leipzig Xavi Simons 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Loïs Openda
3' RasenBallsport Leipzig Benjamin Sesko 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Kosta Nedeljkovic
6' Wolfsburg Jonas Wind 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
9' RasenBallsport Leipzig Bote Baku 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Benjamin Sesko
10' RasenBallsport Leipzig Loïs Openda 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Goal Bote Baku
19' RasenBallsport Leipzig Nicolas Seiwald 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Xavi Simons
21' Wolfsburg Bence Dárdai 0.06 Open Play — Shot On Post Maximilian Arnold
21' Wolfsburg Bence Dárdai 0.40 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
25' RasenBallsport Leipzig Xavi Simons 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Goal Arthur Vermeeren
27' Wolfsburg Jakub Kaminski 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jonas Wind
34' Wolfsburg Bence Dárdai 0.14 Open Play — Blocked Shot Jakub Kaminski
36' Wolfsburg Patrick Wimmer 0.07 Set Piece — Saved Shot Maximilian Arnold
37' Wolfsburg Jakub Kaminski 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Jonas Wind
45' RasenBallsport Leipzig Bote Baku 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Xavi Simons
45' RasenBallsport Leipzig Kosta Nedeljkovic 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
46' RasenBallsport Leipzig Loïs Openda 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Xavi Simons
48' RasenBallsport Leipzig Xavi Simons 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Goal Bote Baku
52' Wolfsburg Yannick Gerhardt 0.24 Open Play — Saved Shot Jonas Wind
54' Wolfsburg David Odogu 0.06 From Corner — Blocked Shot Jakub Kaminski
57' Wolfsburg Kilian Fischer 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Goal Jakub Kaminski
60' RasenBallsport Leipzig Benjamin Sesko 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Xavi Simons
64' Wolfsburg Mohammed Amoura 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Kilian Fischer
65' RasenBallsport Leipzig Benjamin Sesko 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Arthur Vermeeren
67' Wolfsburg Mohammed Amoura 0.08 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
69' Wolfsburg Mohammed Amoura 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jonas Wind
72' Wolfsburg Jonas Wind 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Patrick Wimmer
74' Wolfsburg Andreas Skov Olsen 0.25 Open Play Right Foot Goal Joakim Maehle
81' Wolfsburg Yannick Gerhardt 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
85' RasenBallsport Leipzig Christoph Baumgartner 0.25 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Yussuf Poulsen
87' RasenBallsport Leipzig Christoph Baumgartner 0.58 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
88' RasenBallsport Leipzig Benjamin Sesko 0.05 From Corner — Missed Shot Lutsharel Geertruida
91' RasenBallsport Leipzig Benjamin Sesko 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Yussuf Poulsen
92' Wolfsburg Lukas Nmecha 0.04 Open Play — Missed Shot —

Players

RasenBallsport Leipzig

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Benjamin Sesko FW 90 0 0 5 1 0.39 0.02 0.47
Nicolas Seiwald DMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.91
Lukas Klostermann DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.18
Péter Gulácsi GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
El Chadaille Bitshiabu DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.71
Castello Lukeba DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.29
Xavi Simons AMC 87 2 0 3 4 0.13 0.28 0.56
Loïs Openda FW 79 1 0 2 1 0.09 0.02 0.14
Kosta Nedeljkovic DR 79 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.09 0.18
Bote Baku AMC 73 0 2 2 2 0.06 0.06 0.36
Arthur Vermeeren DMC 73 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.21 0.51
Christoph Baumgartner Sub 17 0 0 2 0 0.83 0.00 0.83
Kevin Kampl Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.58
Lutsharel Geertruida Sub 11 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.00
Yussuf Poulsen Sub 11 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.28 0.85
Amadou Haidara Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Wolfsburg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Yannick Gerhardt ML 90 0 0 2 0 0.29 0.00 0.55
Mohammed Amoura FW 90 0 0 3 0 0.24 0.00 0.21
Jonas Wind FW 90 0 0 2 4 0.15 0.47 0.77
David Odogu DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.03
Kilian Fischer DC 90 1 0 1 1 0.02 0.07 0.46
Maximilian Arnold MC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.13 0.52
Kamil Grabara GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Bence Dárdai MC 88 0 0 3 0 0.60 0.00 0.77
Patrick Wimmer AMC 88 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.10 0.40
Jakub Kaminski MR 73 0 1 2 3 0.14 0.22 0.37
Denis Vavro DC 73 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.31
Andreas Skov Olsen Sub 17 1 0 1 0 0.25 0.00 0.35
Joakim Maehle Sub 17 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.25 0.35
Lukas Nmecha Sub 2 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Tiago Tomás Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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