Wolfsburg v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 27 September 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 20
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
17 – 9
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
1.18 – 1.22
Goals − xG
-2.61 – -1.62
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolfsburg win
37.9%
Draw
27.8%
RasenBallsport Leipzig win
34.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
RasenBallsport Leipzig are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWWWWLWLWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.43–1.35 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.08–1.59 | 2-1 9% | 71% | 70% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolfsburg 2.61 xGRasenBallsport Leipzig 2.62 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolfsburg attacking right
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Patrick Wimmer |
| 3' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 3' |
Wolfsburg |
Moritz Jenz | 0.09 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Konstantinos Koulierakis |
| 7' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Johan Bakayoko | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Rômulo |
| 10' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | David Raum |
| 13' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 15' |
Wolfsburg |
Kilian Fischer | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mattias Svanberg |
| 24' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Johan Bakayoko | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 27' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolas Seiwald |
| 29' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vinicius Souza |
| 32' |
Wolfsburg |
Jonas Wind | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 33' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Johan Bakayoko | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Willi Orban |
| 41' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Patrick Wimmer |
| 46' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 46' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Johan Bakayoko | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Shot On Post | David Raum |
| 50' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mattias Svanberg |
| 52' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.31 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 54' |
Wolfsburg |
Jonas Wind | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kilian Fischer |
| 55' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.34 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 57' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 59' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
David Raum | 0.18 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Wolfsburg |
Jonas Wind | 0.24 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joakim Maehle |
| 62' |
Wolfsburg |
Mattias Svanberg | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Ezechiel Banzuzi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Johan Bakayoko |
| 64' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kilian Fischer |
| 65' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 65' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Ezechiel Banzuzi | 0.20 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 69' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Johan Bakayoko | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 70' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | David Raum |
| 71' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Ezechiel Banzuzi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 73' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vinicius Souza |
| 73' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 74' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 79' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 82' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Joakim Maehle |
| 89' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.76 | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — | |
| 96' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Ezechiel Banzuzi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Conrad Harder |
Players
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.81 | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| Johan Bakayoko FWR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.80 | 0.06 | 0.90 |
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| Bote Baku DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| Péter Gulácsi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Castello Lukeba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Rômulo FW | 81 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.25 |
| Yan Diomande FWL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.88 |
| Assan Ouédraogo MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Antonio Nusa Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Conrad Harder Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Timo Werner Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Kampl Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Amoura AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.43 | 0.96 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.09 | 0.55 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Kilian Fischer DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.36 | 0.51 |
| Maximilian Arnold DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.71 | 0.37 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Joakim Maehle DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.64 |
| Vinicius Souza DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.14 |
| Jonas Wind FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Mattias Svanberg AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| Patrick Wimmer AML | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Adam Daghim Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Christian Eriksen Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lovro Majer Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aaron Zehnter Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |