Wolfsburg v St. Pauli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 8 March 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 14
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
12 – 9
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
1.02 – 0.87
Goals − xG
-0.97 – -0.27
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolfsburg win
54.5%
Draw
28.0%
St. Pauli win
17.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.73–0.91 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolfsburg 1.97 xGSt. Pauli 1.27 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolfsburg attacking right
St. Pauli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 St. Pauli |
Noah Weißhaupt | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oladapo Afolayan |
| 5' |
St. Pauli |
Oladapo Afolayan | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hauke Wahl |
| 6' |
St. Pauli |
Lars Ritzka | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hauke Wahl |
| 15' |
 Wolfsburg |
Yannick Gerhardt | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jonas Wind |
| 20' |
Wolfsburg |
Tiago Tomás | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Mattias Svanberg |
| 23' |
Wolfsburg |
Jonas Wind | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mattias Svanberg |
| 28' |
Wolfsburg |
Jonas Wind | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mattias Svanberg |
| 32' |
Wolfsburg |
Andreas Skov Olsen | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonas Wind |
| 35' |
St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Noah Weißhaupt |
| 35' |
St. Pauli |
Noah Weißhaupt | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
St. Pauli |
Oladapo Afolayan | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eric Smith |
| 37' |
St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Oladapo Afolayan |
| 37' |
St. Pauli |
Siebe Van der Heyden | 0.74 | From Corner | — | Goal | Jackson Irvine |
| 47' |
Wolfsburg |
Jonas Wind | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Andreas Skov Olsen |
| 48' |
St. Pauli |
Elias Saad | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
St. Pauli |
David Nemeth | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 57' |
Wolfsburg |
Jonas Wind | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 60' |
Wolfsburg |
Tiago Tomás | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joakim Maehle |
| 64' |
Wolfsburg |
Tiago Tomás | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Mads Roerslev |
| 67' |
St. Pauli |
Eric Smith | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Philipp Treu |
| 67' |
St. Pauli |
Eric Smith | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 77' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 86' |
Wolfsburg |
Denis Vavro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 86' |
Wolfsburg |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 86' |
Wolfsburg |
Maximilian Arnold | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Wolfsburg |
Denis Vavro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 89' |
Wolfsburg |
Bence Dárdai | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
St. Pauli |
Philipp Treu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Philipp Treu |
Players
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siebe Van der Heyden DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Eric Smith MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 0.20 |
| Jackson Irvine MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.74 | 0.01 |
| David Nemeth DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Philipp Treu MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| Danel Sinani AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Weißhaupt FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Oladapo Afolayan FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Lars Ritzka ML | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Elias Saad Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Manolis Saliakas Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlo Boukhalfa Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johannes Eggestein Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Amoura AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1.26 | 0.09 | 0.73 |
| Denis Vavro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Marius Müller GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Joakim Maehle DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| Mattias Svanberg DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Tiago Tomás AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Jonas Wind FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Andreas Skov Olsen AMR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| Yannick Gerhardt DMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kilian Fischer DR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Maximilian Arnold Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.28 |
| Mads Roerslev Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| Jakub Kaminski Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| Bence Dárdai Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Kevin Behrens Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |