Wolfsburg v St. Pauli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 14 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 9
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 4
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.84 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-0.02 – -0.84
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolfsburg win
50.8%
Draw
29.0%
St. Pauli win
20.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.52–0.88 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.56–0.98 | 1-0 12% | 47% | 49% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolfsburg 2.02 xGSt. Pauli 1.84 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolfsburg attacking right
St. Pauli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Wolfsburg |
Moritz Jenz | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 2' |
 St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ricky-Jade Jones |
| 3' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 15' |
Wolfsburg |
Yannick Gerhardt | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aaron Zehnter |
| 17' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
Wolfsburg |
Yannick Gerhardt | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Patrick Wimmer |
| 24' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 28' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lovro Majer |
| 28' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sael Kumbedi |
| 34' |
St. Pauli |
Ricky-Jade Jones | 0.84 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 34' |
St. Pauli |
Ricky-Jade Jones | 0.74 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 39' |
St. Pauli |
Eric Smith | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Adam Dzwigala |
| 46' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yannick Gerhardt |
| 49' |
St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ricky-Jade Jones |
| 55' |
St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pereira Lage |
| 58' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 64' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 74' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aaron Zehnter |
| 78' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 87' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Goal | Adam Daghim |
| 92' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adam Daghim |
Players
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pereira Lage FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 1.03 |
| Joel Chima Fujita AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.84 | 0.98 |
| Eric Smith MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.01 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Karol Mets DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Adam Dzwigala DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| James Sands MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ricky-Jade Jones FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1.59 | 0.06 | 1.76 |
| Lars Ritzka ML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Louis Oppie Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martijn Kaars Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdoulie Ceesay Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Eriksen AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1.09 | 0.11 | 0.54 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Maximilian Arnold DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.42 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Yannick Gerhardt DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.30 |
| Aaron Zehnter DL | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.50 |
| Sael Kumbedi DR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.40 |
| Patrick Wimmer AML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.40 |
| Lovro Majer AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.31 | 0.50 |
| Mohammed Amoura Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Daghim Sub | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| Kilian Fischer Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mattias Svanberg Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Paredes Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |