Wolfsburg v Union Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 6 December 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
4 – 21
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
3 – 16
xG per shot
0.23 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 1.31
Goals − xG
+2.07 – -1.02
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolfsburg win
38.9%
Draw
28.4%
Union Berlin win
32.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Union Berlin have scored 15 from 14.2 expected and conceded 21 from 20.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWDLLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 14.2 xG
conceded 21
from 20.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.30–1.18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.39–1.12 | 1-1 13% | 46% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolfsburg 0.93 xGUnion Berlin 2.02 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolfsburg attacking right
Union Berlin attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Union Berlin |
Woo-Yeong Jeong | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Leopold Querfeld |
| 9' |
 Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mohammed Amoura |
| 22' |
Union Berlin |
Andras Schafer | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Leopold Querfeld |
| 27' |
Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Leopold Querfeld |
| 29' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sael Kumbedi |
| 31' |
Union Berlin |
Woo-Yeong Jeong | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Derrick Köhn |
| 38' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Derrick Köhn |
| 38' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Christopher Trimmel |
| 45' |
Union Berlin |
Andras Schafer | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 47' |
Union Berlin |
Janik Haberer | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Union Berlin |
Christopher Trimmel | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Union Berlin |
Derrick Köhn | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Christian Eriksen |
| 67' |
Union Berlin |
Stanley N'Soki | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 73' |
Union Berlin |
Tom Rothe | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Janik Haberer |
| 75' |
Wolfsburg |
Aaron Zehnter | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yannick Gerhardt |
| 77' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Leopold Querfeld |
| 80' |
Union Berlin |
Oliver Burke | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tom Rothe |
| 84' |
Union Berlin |
Oliver Burke | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alex Kral |
| 90' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 91' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Oliver Burke |
| 93' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Janik Haberer |
| 99' |
Union Berlin |
Oliver Burke | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 101' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Janik Haberer |
| 104' |
Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Janik Haberer |
Players
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1.01 | 0.12 | 0.53 |
| Janik Haberer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.07 | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| Ilyas Ansah FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Stanley N'Soki DC | 81 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Derrick Köhn DL | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| Christopher Trimmel DR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong FW | 60 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Andras Schafer MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Oliver Burke Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.23 |
| Andrej Ilic Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Tom Rothe Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| Alex Kral Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| Livan Burcu Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lovro Majer AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Aaron Zehnter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Maximilian Arnold DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Christian Eriksen AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 0.76 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jenson Seelt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Yannick Gerhardt DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| Mohammed Amoura FW | 76 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| Patrick Wimmer AML | 68 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Sael Kumbedi DR | 49 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| Jan Bürger Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mattias Svanberg Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Denis Vavro Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pharell Hensel Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |