Wolfsburg v VfB Stuttgart — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 18 October 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 15
On target
3 – 7
Shots in box
7 – 11
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.21 – 0.90
Goals − xG
-0.39 – +0.54
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolfsburg win
29.0%
Draw
25.5%
VfB Stuttgart win
45.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.25–1.62 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.59–1.76 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 66% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolfsburg 0.39 xGVfB Stuttgart 2.46 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolfsburg attacking right
VfB Stuttgart attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Chema Andres |
| 11' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 12' |
 Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jonas Wind |
| 25' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chema Andres | 0.36 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 26' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 27' |
Wolfsburg |
Mattias Svanberg | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jonas Wind |
| 34' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.37 | From Corner | — | Goal | Angelo Stiller |
| 36' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 37' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Lorenz Assignon | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tiago Tomás |
| 49' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lorenz Assignon |
| 52' |
Wolfsburg |
Mattias Svanberg | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Aaron Zehnter |
| 54' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tiago Tomás |
| 54' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 57' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 58' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chema Andres | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 60' |
Wolfsburg |
Joakim Maehle | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mattias Svanberg |
| 72' |
Wolfsburg |
Andreas Skov Olsen | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sael Kumbedi |
| 74' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andreas Skov Olsen |
| 75' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 76' |
Wolfsburg |
Jonas Wind | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 79' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 83' |
Wolfsburg |
Aaron Zehnter | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Lorenz Assignon | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 96' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chris Führich |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chema Andres MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.01 | 0.92 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Lorenz Assignon DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 0.53 |
| Ramon Hendriks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Luca Jaquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Angelo Stiller MC | 85 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.62 | 0.73 | 1.05 |
| Bilal El Khannouss FW | 85 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.15 | 0.84 | 0.91 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DML | 78 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Tiago Tomás AMC | 78 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.16 | 0.38 |
| Nikolas Nartey AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Deniz Undav Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Joshua Vagnoman Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Badredine Bouanani Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Atakan Karazor Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chris Führich Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Wind FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aaron Zehnter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vinicius Souza DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Daghim AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Christian Eriksen AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Mattias Svanberg DMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Joakim Maehle AML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Kilian Fischer DR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sael Kumbedi Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Andreas Skov Olsen Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Lovro Majer Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohammed Amoura Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |